The graph you link to says magnesium and diesel already have greater energy density than fat.
So, I think you have to specify how portable, how common or cheap, and maybe whether you are talking about rechargable or not—or the prediction is probably going to be vague—and subject to the criticism that it has already happened.
I meant commonly used for powering portable electronics. I don’t assign a high probability to this. It is the upper bound of what I think worth discussing.
Right. TNT does not count as a mobile energy storage system.
I think you’re wrong; but it’s a really interesting prediction.
The reason I think you’re wrong is that the rate of improvement of technologies in a field is more-or-less fixed within a field, because it depends on the economics, not on the science. Moore’s Law exists not because there’s some magic about semiconductors, but because the market is sized and structured such that you need to sell people a new system every 2 years, and you need to double performance to get people to buy a new system.
This means you can look at the past exponential curve for battery density, and project it into the future with some confidence. I don’t know what the exponent per year is; but my gut feeling before checking any data or doing any calculations is that it isn’t high enough.
Moore’s Law exists not because there’s some magic about semiconductors, but because the market is sized and structured such that you need to sell people a new system every 2 years, and you need to double performance to get people to buy a new system.
I disagree.
I am typing this on a machine I bought 6 years ago. Its CPU speed is still competitive with current hardware. This lack of speedup is not because processor manufacturers chaven’t been trying to make processors faster; they have. The reason for the lack of speedup is that it is hard to do. The problem is more to do with the nature of physical reality than the structure and economics of the computer industry.
Consider cars. They do not halve in price every two years. Why not? Because they are designed to move people around, and people are roughly the same size they have always been. But computers move bits around, and bits can be made very small (both in terms of the size of circuitry and the power dissipated); this is the fundamental reason why the computer/communications industry has been able to halve prices / double capabilities every year or two for the last half century.
I don’t think there is an exponent curve as such for battery tech. Li-ion came in about 2006? And nothing much has improved since then. The trouble with batteries is you can’t just shrink components and get some improvement as you do with semi-conductors. Your components are already on the atomic scale. So more fundamental breakthroughs are needed.
The prediction is based mainly on our increasing control of biology and the ability to work on the small scale. If nothing else we’ll invent a way to metabolise fat or other carbohydrates to electricity and have small home bioreactors that produce carbs and make nice little cartridges for people to plug into their electronics. Maybe not in 10 years, but some substantial movement is definitely possible in this direction.
What about some of the advances in micro-generators and Fuel-Cells that I have read about?
For instance, I have seen one of those tiny turbine engines running to power an equally tiny generator, and it looked to provide a hellofa lotta power for its size. I know the military is putting them into some applications in the field, so it will probably not be too terribly long before we see them on things like Laptops/tablets or cell phones.
I haven’t seen anything recent on these. Any keywords to google? The key thing for a consumer electronics application is ease of getting the fuel. People don’t want to have to head out to the shops to get it every few days, which is why rechargeable batteries are the current winner.
Try “MIT Micro Turbine Generator”. That will get you to the base technology. I tried to find the DARPA Page, but it seems to have been buried. The MIT Technology has also got a lot smaller from the 2006 initial turbines, which were roughly the size of a quarter. They know measure less than 1cm on a side. The Generator that creates the electricity from these things is roughly the same size as the turbine. It basically looks like a DVD Motor (really flat and broad).
I saw them as a field power source for laser designator and weapon (a modified laser designator that could be used as a sniper weapon), and as a source for communications gear. They used the same propellant that a butane lighter uses (that stuff in an aerosol can), They were said to run much longer than one day of full use on one charge.
The problems with them:
Heat and noise. They make a high pitched whine that can be muffled, yet is still easy to pick up on a mic that has the appropriate filtering software. The heat can also be shielded, but it creates a problem for the user. A last rumor that I hear is that when these things fail, they can cause the propellant to burn off. I have only heard one person talking about that though.
MIT is not the only one to come up with small turbines to use as power sources. some of the really small jet-turbine engines (1/2“ in diameter, and 2” to 3″ long) have been discovered to be excellent power sources as well when coupled to a generator.
Two semesters ago, I looked into making my own micro-turbine as a project for an engineering lab (I couldn’t find anyone willing to donate the Mill Time on a CAD/CAM mill to make the turbine blades, and I couldn’t afford the ready made ones). This is what led to my discovery of most of these (and then friends helped with actually seeing one).
We will end the decade with some mobile energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.
ETA: I mean in the context of electronics.
From looking at the diagram, aren’t we starting the decade with such a system (gasoline)?
You are the second person to mistake my intent. I meant in the field of mobile electronics. Take a look at where lithium ion is on this chart.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1664
The graph you link to says magnesium and diesel already have greater energy density than fat.
So, I think you have to specify how portable, how common or cheap, and maybe whether you are talking about rechargable or not—or the prediction is probably going to be vague—and subject to the criticism that it has already happened.
I meant commonly used for powering portable electronics. I don’t assign a high probability to this. It is the upper bound of what I think worth discussing.
Right. TNT does not count as a mobile energy storage system.
I think you’re wrong; but it’s a really interesting prediction.
The reason I think you’re wrong is that the rate of improvement of technologies in a field is more-or-less fixed within a field, because it depends on the economics, not on the science. Moore’s Law exists not because there’s some magic about semiconductors, but because the market is sized and structured such that you need to sell people a new system every 2 years, and you need to double performance to get people to buy a new system.
This means you can look at the past exponential curve for battery density, and project it into the future with some confidence. I don’t know what the exponent per year is; but my gut feeling before checking any data or doing any calculations is that it isn’t high enough.
I disagree.
I am typing this on a machine I bought 6 years ago. Its CPU speed is still competitive with current hardware. This lack of speedup is not because processor manufacturers chaven’t been trying to make processors faster; they have. The reason for the lack of speedup is that it is hard to do. The problem is more to do with the nature of physical reality than the structure and economics of the computer industry.
Consider cars. They do not halve in price every two years. Why not? Because they are designed to move people around, and people are roughly the same size they have always been. But computers move bits around, and bits can be made very small (both in terms of the size of circuitry and the power dissipated); this is the fundamental reason why the computer/communications industry has been able to halve prices / double capabilities every year or two for the last half century.
I don’t think there is an exponent curve as such for battery tech. Li-ion came in about 2006? And nothing much has improved since then. The trouble with batteries is you can’t just shrink components and get some improvement as you do with semi-conductors. Your components are already on the atomic scale. So more fundamental breakthroughs are needed.
The prediction is based mainly on our increasing control of biology and the ability to work on the small scale. If nothing else we’ll invent a way to metabolise fat or other carbohydrates to electricity and have small home bioreactors that produce carbs and make nice little cartridges for people to plug into their electronics. Maybe not in 10 years, but some substantial movement is definitely possible in this direction.
A graph of battery energy density between 1985 and 2008:
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/Battery%20Energy%20Density.jpg
Extrapolate away!
What about some of the advances in micro-generators and Fuel-Cells that I have read about?
For instance, I have seen one of those tiny turbine engines running to power an equally tiny generator, and it looked to provide a hellofa lotta power for its size. I know the military is putting them into some applications in the field, so it will probably not be too terribly long before we see them on things like Laptops/tablets or cell phones.
I haven’t seen anything recent on these. Any keywords to google? The key thing for a consumer electronics application is ease of getting the fuel. People don’t want to have to head out to the shops to get it every few days, which is why rechargeable batteries are the current winner.
Try “MIT Micro Turbine Generator”. That will get you to the base technology. I tried to find the DARPA Page, but it seems to have been buried. The MIT Technology has also got a lot smaller from the 2006 initial turbines, which were roughly the size of a quarter. They know measure less than 1cm on a side. The Generator that creates the electricity from these things is roughly the same size as the turbine. It basically looks like a DVD Motor (really flat and broad).
I saw them as a field power source for laser designator and weapon (a modified laser designator that could be used as a sniper weapon), and as a source for communications gear. They used the same propellant that a butane lighter uses (that stuff in an aerosol can), They were said to run much longer than one day of full use on one charge.
The problems with them:
Heat and noise. They make a high pitched whine that can be muffled, yet is still easy to pick up on a mic that has the appropriate filtering software. The heat can also be shielded, but it creates a problem for the user. A last rumor that I hear is that when these things fail, they can cause the propellant to burn off. I have only heard one person talking about that though.
MIT is not the only one to come up with small turbines to use as power sources. some of the really small jet-turbine engines (1/2“ in diameter, and 2” to 3″ long) have been discovered to be excellent power sources as well when coupled to a generator.
Two semesters ago, I looked into making my own micro-turbine as a project for an engineering lab (I couldn’t find anyone willing to donate the Mill Time on a CAD/CAM mill to make the turbine blades, and I couldn’t afford the ready made ones). This is what led to my discovery of most of these (and then friends helped with actually seeing one).