I don’t think there is an exponent curve as such for battery tech. Li-ion came in about 2006? And nothing much has improved since then. The trouble with batteries is you can’t just shrink components and get some improvement as you do with semi-conductors. Your components are already on the atomic scale. So more fundamental breakthroughs are needed.
The prediction is based mainly on our increasing control of biology and the ability to work on the small scale. If nothing else we’ll invent a way to metabolise fat or other carbohydrates to electricity and have small home bioreactors that produce carbs and make nice little cartridges for people to plug into their electronics. Maybe not in 10 years, but some substantial movement is definitely possible in this direction.
What about some of the advances in micro-generators and Fuel-Cells that I have read about?
For instance, I have seen one of those tiny turbine engines running to power an equally tiny generator, and it looked to provide a hellofa lotta power for its size. I know the military is putting them into some applications in the field, so it will probably not be too terribly long before we see them on things like Laptops/tablets or cell phones.
I haven’t seen anything recent on these. Any keywords to google? The key thing for a consumer electronics application is ease of getting the fuel. People don’t want to have to head out to the shops to get it every few days, which is why rechargeable batteries are the current winner.
Try “MIT Micro Turbine Generator”. That will get you to the base technology. I tried to find the DARPA Page, but it seems to have been buried. The MIT Technology has also got a lot smaller from the 2006 initial turbines, which were roughly the size of a quarter. They know measure less than 1cm on a side. The Generator that creates the electricity from these things is roughly the same size as the turbine. It basically looks like a DVD Motor (really flat and broad).
I saw them as a field power source for laser designator and weapon (a modified laser designator that could be used as a sniper weapon), and as a source for communications gear. They used the same propellant that a butane lighter uses (that stuff in an aerosol can), They were said to run much longer than one day of full use on one charge.
The problems with them:
Heat and noise. They make a high pitched whine that can be muffled, yet is still easy to pick up on a mic that has the appropriate filtering software. The heat can also be shielded, but it creates a problem for the user. A last rumor that I hear is that when these things fail, they can cause the propellant to burn off. I have only heard one person talking about that though.
MIT is not the only one to come up with small turbines to use as power sources. some of the really small jet-turbine engines (1/2“ in diameter, and 2” to 3″ long) have been discovered to be excellent power sources as well when coupled to a generator.
Two semesters ago, I looked into making my own micro-turbine as a project for an engineering lab (I couldn’t find anyone willing to donate the Mill Time on a CAD/CAM mill to make the turbine blades, and I couldn’t afford the ready made ones). This is what led to my discovery of most of these (and then friends helped with actually seeing one).
I don’t think there is an exponent curve as such for battery tech. Li-ion came in about 2006? And nothing much has improved since then. The trouble with batteries is you can’t just shrink components and get some improvement as you do with semi-conductors. Your components are already on the atomic scale. So more fundamental breakthroughs are needed.
The prediction is based mainly on our increasing control of biology and the ability to work on the small scale. If nothing else we’ll invent a way to metabolise fat or other carbohydrates to electricity and have small home bioreactors that produce carbs and make nice little cartridges for people to plug into their electronics. Maybe not in 10 years, but some substantial movement is definitely possible in this direction.
A graph of battery energy density between 1985 and 2008:
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/Battery%20Energy%20Density.jpg
Extrapolate away!
What about some of the advances in micro-generators and Fuel-Cells that I have read about?
For instance, I have seen one of those tiny turbine engines running to power an equally tiny generator, and it looked to provide a hellofa lotta power for its size. I know the military is putting them into some applications in the field, so it will probably not be too terribly long before we see them on things like Laptops/tablets or cell phones.
I haven’t seen anything recent on these. Any keywords to google? The key thing for a consumer electronics application is ease of getting the fuel. People don’t want to have to head out to the shops to get it every few days, which is why rechargeable batteries are the current winner.
Try “MIT Micro Turbine Generator”. That will get you to the base technology. I tried to find the DARPA Page, but it seems to have been buried. The MIT Technology has also got a lot smaller from the 2006 initial turbines, which were roughly the size of a quarter. They know measure less than 1cm on a side. The Generator that creates the electricity from these things is roughly the same size as the turbine. It basically looks like a DVD Motor (really flat and broad).
I saw them as a field power source for laser designator and weapon (a modified laser designator that could be used as a sniper weapon), and as a source for communications gear. They used the same propellant that a butane lighter uses (that stuff in an aerosol can), They were said to run much longer than one day of full use on one charge.
The problems with them:
Heat and noise. They make a high pitched whine that can be muffled, yet is still easy to pick up on a mic that has the appropriate filtering software. The heat can also be shielded, but it creates a problem for the user. A last rumor that I hear is that when these things fail, they can cause the propellant to burn off. I have only heard one person talking about that though.
MIT is not the only one to come up with small turbines to use as power sources. some of the really small jet-turbine engines (1/2“ in diameter, and 2” to 3″ long) have been discovered to be excellent power sources as well when coupled to a generator.
Two semesters ago, I looked into making my own micro-turbine as a project for an engineering lab (I couldn’t find anyone willing to donate the Mill Time on a CAD/CAM mill to make the turbine blades, and I couldn’t afford the ready made ones). This is what led to my discovery of most of these (and then friends helped with actually seeing one).