For extreme ASI, I don’t have much hopes of Chinese labs solving alignment—they don’t appear to even try. So in this scenario we’d be cooked either way.
For mild controllable ASI, I agree with you that the world’s liberal democracies might now be better off with China. I think it depends on the next US administration and whether it commits to the policy of “USA as a coercive global empire” or go back to a more cooperative international stance.
For extreme ASI, I don’t have much hopes of Chinese labs solving alignment—they don’t appear to even try. So in this scenario we’d be cooked either way.
For mild controllable ASI, I agree with you that the world’s liberal democracies might now be better off with China. I think it depends on the next US administration and whether it commits to the policy of “USA as a coercive global empire” or go back to a more cooperative international stance.