I do not think this is entirely accurate. Lung cancer in smokers hits unusually young people because, well, they are smokers. Heart disease is a disease of old age and accelerating it somewhat through an unhealthy diet would have complex effects. However, making matters even more complicated, ultraprocessed foods also promote cancers and obesity—the latter is definitely a huge healthcare burden which does not kill people immediately.
This is hard to model since there can be a shift from a disease that kills slowly to one that kills quickly and early (dementia to lung cancer), but you can have also the opposite shift (e.g. from a non-disease state to chronic COPD and frailty preceding death).
All we can say for sure is that the harmful effects of smoking and junk food diets may be offset to some extent. More so for smoking than junk food.
Either way, it would appear the consensus is that “in high-income countries, lifetime health care costs are greater for smokers than for non-smokers, even after accounting for the shorter lives of smokers”
I understand the issue wasn’t healthcare costs but total cost to the government.
It means if you were playing ’simGovernment” from a bird’s eye view, and you do not care about the fate of individuals, you are trying to maximize the government’s power and revenue, this might be a profitable tradeoff.
You can abstract it as a “card” from an options menu you can select:
[beef subsidy]
+ farmer votes
- average lifespan
+ healthcare costs
- total cost per citizen
NPV of choice: + <some number> per citizen
You can think of this case where as a government official or a gamer playing the “government” as a side your interests aren’t aligned with the population’s happiness or lifespan as a case of misalignment.
Also, while your link claims that lifetime healthcare costs are greater for smokers, it does not claim it is a consensus, but specifically mentions that many people claim the opposite. And that’s before getting to Gerald Monroe’s point.
I do not think this is entirely accurate. Lung cancer in smokers hits unusually young people because, well, they are smokers. Heart disease is a disease of old age and accelerating it somewhat through an unhealthy diet would have complex effects. However, making matters even more complicated, ultraprocessed foods also promote cancers and obesity—the latter is definitely a huge healthcare burden which does not kill people immediately.
This is hard to model since there can be a shift from a disease that kills slowly to one that kills quickly and early (dementia to lung cancer), but you can have also the opposite shift (e.g. from a non-disease state to chronic COPD and frailty preceding death).
All we can say for sure is that the harmful effects of smoking and junk food diets may be offset to some extent. More so for smoking than junk food.
Either way, it would appear the consensus is that “in high-income countries, lifetime health care costs are greater for smokers than for non-smokers, even after accounting for the shorter lives of smokers”
https://www.tobaccoinaustralia.org.au/chapter-17-economics/17-2-the-costs-of-smoking
I understand the issue wasn’t healthcare costs but total cost to the government.
It means if you were playing ’simGovernment” from a bird’s eye view, and you do not care about the fate of individuals, you are trying to maximize the government’s power and revenue, this might be a profitable tradeoff.
You can abstract it as a “card” from an options menu you can select:
[beef subsidy]
+ farmer votes
- average lifespan
+ healthcare costs
- total cost per citizen
NPV of choice: + <some number> per citizen
You can think of this case where as a government official or a gamer playing the “government” as a side your interests aren’t aligned with the population’s happiness or lifespan as a case of misalignment.
Lung cancer affects old people.
Also, while your link claims that lifetime healthcare costs are greater for smokers, it does not claim it is a consensus, but specifically mentions that many people claim the opposite. And that’s before getting to Gerald Monroe’s point.