I don’t think markets are likely to correlate very strongly to this. Whether prediction markets or stock/commodity that has a bit of correlation to what you care about, the fundemental problem is “if the economy changes by enough, the units of measure for the market (money!) change”. Which means that payoff risk overwhelms prediction risk. You can be spot-on correct about timelines, and STILL not get paid. So why participated in that prediction at al?
I don’t think markets are likely to correlate very strongly to this. Whether prediction markets or stock/commodity that has a bit of correlation to what you care about, the fundemental problem is “if the economy changes by enough, the units of measure for the market (money!) change”. Which means that payoff risk overwhelms prediction risk. You can be spot-on correct about timelines, and STILL not get paid. So why participated in that prediction at al?