Regarding the tradeoffs, I downvoted the original question because it weighs one first-order effect of the sanctions against one second-order effect, and that seemed like a misguided way of weighing such tradeoffs.
For instance, levying sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine also makes them more likely to be levied against China if it invades Taiwan. This hopefully disincentivizes such an invasion, but if it happened nonetheless, it would contribute to more suffering.
It’s unclear what’s first and what’s second order here. If you block Russia from selling Africans wheat and as a result Africans starve that seems like a first order effect.
On the other hand sanctions don’t have a direct first order effect or Russian military actions in Ukraine.
Regarding the tradeoffs, I downvoted the original question because it weighs one first-order effect of the sanctions against one second-order effect, and that seemed like a misguided way of weighing such tradeoffs.
For instance, levying sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine also makes them more likely to be levied against China if it invades Taiwan. This hopefully disincentivizes such an invasion, but if it happened nonetheless, it would contribute to more suffering.
It’s unclear what’s first and what’s second order here. If you block Russia from selling Africans wheat and as a result Africans starve that seems like a first order effect.
On the other hand sanctions don’t have a direct first order effect or Russian military actions in Ukraine.