Western sanctions seem to be able to prevent Russia from exporting even to other countries:
Grain exports have been halted by a lack of transportation because of port closures, while paying Russia has become more complex due to sanctions imposed by the west.
The article suggests a 50% increase in wheat prices.
Interesting. But that sounds like a short term sort of thing till alternatives are set up, at which point reduced competition for russian wheat should lower prices?
That’s basically a thesis that Russia will have it easy to route around Western sanctions. Given that there are futures contracts it should be possible to answer that question.
Sanctions make forbid various shipping companies to transport the goods. The banking sections also make it a lot harder to actually pay for the goods. Traders can’t burrow to finance their operations to trade with Russia and ships can’t be insured when the insurances are barred from doing so.
Presumably Africans can still buy Russian wheat, since their governments haven’t introduced sanctions, so wheat should be cheaper for them?
Western sanctions seem to be able to prevent Russia from exporting even to other countries:
The article suggests a 50% increase in wheat prices.
Interesting. But that sounds like a short term sort of thing till alternatives are set up, at which point reduced competition for russian wheat should lower prices?
That’s basically a thesis that Russia will have it easy to route around Western sanctions. Given that there are futures contracts it should be possible to answer that question.
Well they won’t be able to route around sanctions to sell to the west that easily, only to those countries that don’t support sanctions.
Sanctions make forbid various shipping companies to transport the goods. The banking sections also make it a lot harder to actually pay for the goods. Traders can’t burrow to finance their operations to trade with Russia and ships can’t be insured when the insurances are barred from doing so.
But presumably at some point the present shippers will be replaced by e.g. Chinese shippers which aren’t bound by sanctions?