You’re right that the operative word in “seems more likely” is “seems”! I used the word “seems” because I find this whole topic really confusing and I have a lot of uncertainty.
It sounds like there may be a concern that I am using the absurdity heuristic or something similar against the idea of fast take-off and associated AI apocalypse. Just to be clear, I most certainly do not buy absurdity heuristic arguments in this space, would not use them, and find them extremely annoying. We’ve never seen anything like AI before, so our intuition (which might suggest that the situation seems absurd) is liable to be very wrong.
Oh, I think I should’ve made clearer that I wasn’t aiming that rant at you specifically. Just outlining my general impression of how the two views feel socially.
You’re right that the operative word in “seems more likely” is “seems”! I used the word “seems” because I find this whole topic really confusing and I have a lot of uncertainty.
It sounds like there may be a concern that I am using the absurdity heuristic or something similar against the idea of fast take-off and associated AI apocalypse. Just to be clear, I most certainly do not buy absurdity heuristic arguments in this space, would not use them, and find them extremely annoying. We’ve never seen anything like AI before, so our intuition (which might suggest that the situation seems absurd) is liable to be very wrong.
Oh, I think I should’ve made clearer that I wasn’t aiming that rant at you specifically. Just outlining my general impression of how the two views feel socially.