I’m sympathetic to the position you feel you’re in. I’m sorry it’s currently like that.
I think you should be quite convinced by the point you’re taking out loans to study, and that the apparent plurality of the LessWrong commentariat is unlikely to be sufficient evidence to reach that level of convincement – just my feeling.
I’m hoping some more detailed arguments for doom will be posted in the near future and that will help many people reach their own conclusions not based on information cascades, etc.
Lastly, I do think people should be more “creative” in finding ways to boost log odds of survival. Direct research might make sense for some, but if you’d need to go back to the school for it, there are maybe other things you should brainstorm and consider.
Odds are an alternative way of presenting probabilities. 50% corresponds to 1:1, 66.66..% corresponds to 1:2, 90% corresponds to 1:9, etc. 33.33..% correspond to 2:1 odds, or, with the first number as as a 1, 1:0.5 odds.
Log odds, or bits, are the logarithm of probabilities expressed as 1:x odds. In some cases, they can be a more natural way of thinking about probabilities (see e.g., here.)
I’m sympathetic to the position you feel you’re in. I’m sorry it’s currently like that.
I think you should be quite convinced by the point you’re taking out loans to study, and that the apparent plurality of the LessWrong commentariat is unlikely to be sufficient evidence to reach that level of convincement – just my feeling.
I’m hoping some more detailed arguments for doom will be posted in the near future and that will help many people reach their own conclusions not based on information cascades, etc.
Lastly, I do think people should be more “creative” in finding ways to boost log odds of survival. Direct research might make sense for some, but if you’d need to go back to the school for it, there are maybe other things you should brainstorm and consider.
Sorry if this is a silly question, but what exactly are “log odds” and what do they mean in this context?
Odds are an alternative way of presenting probabilities. 50% corresponds to 1:1, 66.66..% corresponds to 1:2, 90% corresponds to 1:9, etc. 33.33..% correspond to 2:1 odds, or, with the first number as as a 1, 1:0.5 odds.
Log odds, or bits, are the logarithm of probabilities expressed as 1:x odds. In some cases, they can be a more natural way of thinking about probabilities (see e.g., here.)
I think 75% is 1:3 rather than 1:2.
Whoops, changed
(A confusing way of writing “probability”)