@cyan: “For example, a “life’s meaning”-shaped hole in one’s brain seems more plausible than a specifically religion-shaped hole.”
hmmm… but then where are the large number of successful societies that don’t have a religious belief system? Religion is widely acknowledged to be an almost universal phenomenon. The hypothesis that there’s merely a “meaning shaped” hole is a less specific prediction than the “religion shaped” hole. Remember, the more specific the predictions a hypothesis makes, the more credence we should give it (assuming, of course, that the data doesn’t falsify it). Example: suppose two hypotheses H1 and H2 make predictions about the value of a random variable X which lies between 0 and 1. H1 predicts X will be between 0.01 and 0.99, and H2 predicts that X will be between 0.22 and 0.2201. We measure X to have the value 0.22006. Which hypothesis do you believe? I’d believe H2, because it made a very specific prediction and didn’t get falsified.
The same applies to my more specific prediction versus your less specific prediction.
@cyan: “For example, a “life’s meaning”-shaped hole in one’s brain seems more plausible than a specifically religion-shaped hole.”
hmmm… but then where are the large number of successful societies that don’t have a religious belief system? Religion is widely acknowledged to be an almost universal phenomenon. The hypothesis that there’s merely a “meaning shaped” hole is a less specific prediction than the “religion shaped” hole. Remember, the more specific the predictions a hypothesis makes, the more credence we should give it (assuming, of course, that the data doesn’t falsify it). Example: suppose two hypotheses H1 and H2 make predictions about the value of a random variable X which lies between 0 and 1. H1 predicts X will be between 0.01 and 0.99, and H2 predicts that X will be between 0.22 and 0.2201. We measure X to have the value 0.22006. Which hypothesis do you believe? I’d believe H2, because it made a very specific prediction and didn’t get falsified.
The same applies to my more specific prediction versus your less specific prediction.