Most of it is available with good tool-level ai, plus motivated human scammers which we know already exist in quantity. Don’t think of it as AI-led, but AI-enabled-scaling.
I think scaling with sub-AGI capabilities won’t produce that phase transition the post references. There might be noticeably more social engineering of the normal mass produced kind, with marginally better guesses and scripts, but not at all resembling something a talented professional backed by surveillance and hackers might be able to pull off at present. So if you are currently invincible to cheap scammers, you’ll continue being so, perhaps adapting to become a bit more suspicious to unverified communications than now. It’s not even clear if they would bother you more as they become more “productive”, because their tools might figure out that you are probably invincible and so not worth bothering with.
I honestly don’t know. Ability for scammers to get 1% success rater vs 0.01%, or susceptibility of 5% rather than 1% (wild guesses; it’s hard to find un-motivated stats) of the population could easily be a big enough change to break the world. I don’t know what things look like if single-digit percentages of adults can’t have a bank account or credit card without getting scammed.
Most of it is available with good tool-level ai, plus motivated human scammers which we know already exist in quantity. Don’t think of it as AI-led, but AI-enabled-scaling.
I think scaling with sub-AGI capabilities won’t produce that phase transition the post references. There might be noticeably more social engineering of the normal mass produced kind, with marginally better guesses and scripts, but not at all resembling something a talented professional backed by surveillance and hackers might be able to pull off at present. So if you are currently invincible to cheap scammers, you’ll continue being so, perhaps adapting to become a bit more suspicious to unverified communications than now. It’s not even clear if they would bother you more as they become more “productive”, because their tools might figure out that you are probably invincible and so not worth bothering with.
I honestly don’t know. Ability for scammers to get 1% success rater vs 0.01%, or susceptibility of 5% rather than 1% (wild guesses; it’s hard to find un-motivated stats) of the population could easily be a big enough change to break the world. I don’t know what things look like if single-digit percentages of adults can’t have a bank account or credit card without getting scammed.