Modulo the sentence “this lowers our confidence that everyone will die”, since I don’t think it’s what they believe, or what I believe, though it’s messy. My guess is this period is also majorly responsible for increasing risks by creating tons of economic momentum that then make it hard to stop when you get to really risky AI, and so my best guess is the overall technological diffusion will make things riskier instead of less, though I don’t have a strong take either way.
Having the economic incentives plus other things explained, and being like “and yep, this seems like it might make things worse or better, it makes it harder to be confident about how things go, though the core difficulty remains”, would be good.
I agree that a section like this would be good!
Modulo the sentence “this lowers our confidence that everyone will die”, since I don’t think it’s what they believe, or what I believe, though it’s messy. My guess is this period is also majorly responsible for increasing risks by creating tons of economic momentum that then make it hard to stop when you get to really risky AI, and so my best guess is the overall technological diffusion will make things riskier instead of less, though I don’t have a strong take either way.
Having the economic incentives plus other things explained, and being like “and yep, this seems like it might make things worse or better, it makes it harder to be confident about how things go, though the core difficulty remains”, would be good.