G is “the door opens”, a- is “push door”, a+ is “some weird complicated doorknob with a lock”. Pretty much any b- can open a-, but only a very specific key+manipulator combo opens a+. a+ is much more informative about successful b than a- is.
G is “I make a million dollars”, a- is “straightforward boring investing”, a+ is “buy a lottery ticket”. A wide variety of different world-histories b can satisfy a-, as long as the markets are favorable—but a very narrow slice can satisfy a+. a+ is a more fragile strategy (relative to noise in b) than a- is.
Proposed toy examples for G:
G is “the door opens”, a- is “push door”, a+ is “some weird complicated doorknob with a lock”. Pretty much any b- can open a-, but only a very specific key+manipulator combo opens a+. a+ is much more informative about successful b than a- is.
G is “I make a million dollars”, a- is “straightforward boring investing”, a+ is “buy a lottery ticket”. A wide variety of different world-histories b can satisfy a-, as long as the markets are favorable—but a very narrow slice can satisfy a+. a+ is a more fragile strategy (relative to noise in b) than a- is.