I think that generally when people say “overconfident” they have a broader class of irrational beliefs in mind than “overly narrow confidence intervals around their beliefs”, things like bias towards thinking well of yourself can be part of it too.
And maybe some are “overconfident” that early AGI will be helpful for solving future problems, but again this is just a mistake, not systemic overconfidence
OK but whatever the exact pattern of irrationality is, it clearly exists simultanaeously with humans being competent enough to possibly cause x-risk. It seems plausible that AIs might share similar (or novel!) patterns of irrationality that contribute to x-risk probability while being orthogonal to alignment per se.
I think that generally when people say “overconfident” they have a broader class of irrational beliefs in mind than “overly narrow confidence intervals around their beliefs”, things like bias towards thinking well of yourself can be part of it too.
OK but whatever the exact pattern of irrationality is, it clearly exists simultanaeously with humans being competent enough to possibly cause x-risk. It seems plausible that AIs might share similar (or novel!) patterns of irrationality that contribute to x-risk probability while being orthogonal to alignment per se.
Yes, I agree with that.