Or the idea that, if AI was going to take over most of the economy, you would actually expect something very close to what we are seeing, and for most people to keep sleeping on this.
+1 it’s frustrating that Hanson claims my model is inconsistent with what we are seeing whilst his model is consistent, when in fact the opposite is true—he’s already lost a bet about LLM revenue: < $1Bn Revenue from GPT Language Models | Metaculus
For my part I was more bullish than Hanson on this forecasting question but not as bullish as I should have been! Shoulda trusted my model more.
+1 it’s frustrating that Hanson claims my model is inconsistent with what we are seeing whilst his model is consistent, when in fact the opposite is true—he’s already lost a bet about LLM revenue: < $1Bn Revenue from GPT Language Models | Metaculus
For my part I was more bullish than Hanson on this forecasting question but not as bullish as I should have been! Shoulda trusted my model more.