That argument for not-P doesn’t account for observation O.
In general, in my all-things-considered forecast, I expect that there is a significant chance of P. I think the basis for P is pretty clear at this point given the empirical data, and I believe these earlier arguments for P were correct. P is also just a direct extrapolation from R, so this ultimately shouldn’t be surprising. We’ve known P for a long time now, frankly.
A subset of the broader community is in favor of P, but I think that this is bad of them and that P is evil. Join me in calling your political representatives about P.
That argument for not-P doesn’t account for observation O.
In general, in my all-things-considered forecast, I expect that there is a significant chance of P. I think the basis for P is pretty clear at this point given the empirical data, and I believe these earlier arguments for P were correct. P is also just a direct extrapolation from R, so this ultimately shouldn’t be surprising. We’ve known P for a long time now, frankly.
A subset of the broader community is in favor of P, but I think that this is bad of them and that P is evil. Join me in calling your political representatives about P.