Another interesting thing you can do with the data is to calculate the prior probability that a Metaculus or PB question will resolve positively:
data <- read.csv("met2.csv") ## or pb2.csv data$brier = (data$result-data$probability)^2 results = c() for(id in unique(data$id)){ predictions = ( data$id == id ) result = data$result[predictions[1]] results = c(results, result) } mean(results)
For Metaculus, this is 0.3160874, for PB this is 0.3770311
Another interesting thing you can do with the data is to calculate the prior probability that a Metaculus or PB question will resolve positively:
For Metaculus, this is 0.3160874, for PB this is 0.3770311