What do you think of foom arguments built on Baumol effects, such as the one presented in the Davidson takeoff model? The argument being that certain tasks will bottleneck AI productivity, and there will be a sudden explosion in hardware / software / goods & services production when those bottlenecks are finally lifted.
Davidson’s median scenario predicts 6 OOMs of software efficiency and 3 OOMs of hardware efficiency within a single year when 100% automation is reached. Note that this is preceded by five years of double digit GDP growth, so it could be classified with the scenarios you describe in 4.
What do you think of foom arguments built on Baumol effects, such as the one presented in the Davidson takeoff model? The argument being that certain tasks will bottleneck AI productivity, and there will be a sudden explosion in hardware / software / goods & services production when those bottlenecks are finally lifted.
Davidson’s median scenario predicts 6 OOMs of software efficiency and 3 OOMs of hardware efficiency within a single year when 100% automation is reached. Note that this is preceded by five years of double digit GDP growth, so it could be classified with the scenarios you describe in 4.