Maybe I have that impression because I tend to reach for a null hypothesis as my default model, which in this case is that LWers would do no better with cryptocurrency than other people who had similar levels of interest in tech. And 15% of people making $1000+ is way more than I would predict on that model.
And mine is that it sounds like we did do much better than the average tech industry.
Though maybe you/Scott/others have different intuitions than I do about how common it has been for tech folks to make a bunch of money on cryptocurrency. My impression from Scott’s post was that we wouldn’t differ much in our estimates of the numbers, just about whether “15% is way less than 100%” was more salient than “15% is way more than 1% (or whatever the relevant base rate is)”.
I agree, 15% struck me as a huge number. In particular, everyone in the tech industry has had the money to invest over the last several years, while LessWrongers are a lot younger and poorer. More than half of SSC survey responders are students or entry-level employees, and less than half of people well into their careers are in tech. Also, this is still just an online forum, so I wouldn’t expect investment opportunities to spread as contagiously as among people having lunch together at a tech company office every day.
Bottom line: based purely on background demographics, I would have expected at least 5 times as many (as a %) of Silicon Valley people to have made money off crypto as LessWrongers. Based on the 15% result, I’d be surprised if we didn’t do 5 times better.
I wonder if this comes down to personal situation bias. Scott made no money, and he gives us a C. I made enough to donate >$5k in BTC to MIRI, and I’d give us an A- at worst.
15% seems like a lot.
Maybe I have that impression because I tend to reach for a null hypothesis as my default model, which in this case is that LWers would do no better with cryptocurrency than other people who had similar levels of interest in tech. And 15% of people making $1000+ is way more than I would predict on that model.
Scott’s whole point is ‘if rationality is good for anything, we should be doing much better than the average tech industry.’
Do we have any data on how well other people who had similar levels of interest in tech did?
And mine is that it sounds like we did do much better than the average tech industry.
Though maybe you/Scott/others have different intuitions than I do about how common it has been for tech folks to make a bunch of money on cryptocurrency. My impression from Scott’s post was that we wouldn’t differ much in our estimates of the numbers, just about whether “15% is way less than 100%” was more salient than “15% is way more than 1% (or whatever the relevant base rate is)”.
I agree, 15% struck me as a huge number. In particular, everyone in the tech industry has had the money to invest over the last several years, while LessWrongers are a lot younger and poorer. More than half of SSC survey responders are students or entry-level employees, and less than half of people well into their careers are in tech. Also, this is still just an online forum, so I wouldn’t expect investment opportunities to spread as contagiously as among people having lunch together at a tech company office every day.
Bottom line: based purely on background demographics, I would have expected at least 5 times as many (as a %) of Silicon Valley people to have made money off crypto as LessWrongers. Based on the 15% result, I’d be surprised if we didn’t do 5 times better.
I wonder if this comes down to personal situation bias. Scott made no money, and he gives us a C. I made enough to donate >$5k in BTC to MIRI, and I’d give us an A- at worst.