The actual probability for a random person to get cancer is either 90% or 1%. You just don’t know which
“You just don’t know which” is what probability is. The “actual” probability is the probability conditional on all the information we actually have, namely 45.5%; 90% or 1% would be the probability if, contrary to the fact, we also knew whether the person has the lesion.
“You just don’t know which” is what probability is. The “actual” probability is the probability conditional on all the information we actually have, namely 45.5%; 90% or 1% would be the probability if, contrary to the fact, we also knew whether the person has the lesion.
See my answer to entirelyuseless.