I totally agree that MMM got quite a few things wrong in that post. It’s caused me to decrease my confidence in him too. However, the lifestyle factors point didn’t strike me as one of those. We certainly shouldn’t take his word for it, but it seems worth considering the question.
Those are some good points you make, thank you. I agree that there is something to be said about how “lifestyle factors” are a conscious choice that people made. To me that nudges things somewhat, but isn’t a game changer. I don’t think it makes it 10x less bad or anything.
The economic impact is a point that I think is crucial to the question of how bad this really is, and I think it’s related to the questions I pose about how bad is it really to have less money. If bad economic impact means lower standard of living, and lower standard of living isn’t really that impactful on happiness, then maybe bad economic impact isn’t that bad. But I suspect that there are things I’m overlooking, and that bad economic impact is in fact relatively bad. So then, I update my viewpoint to being that it’s a notable amount worse than lifestyle factors deaths, but still in the same ballpark, not 10x worse. My confidence in the “how bad is it to have a bad economic impact” question is pretty wide though, because it’s not something I know much about.
with an imminent risk that 1-10% of everyone dies within the next two years.
Is that really a possibility? I imagine that governments would impose a strict quarantine before letting it get that bad.
For my low-income friends though, yes. Yes it is going to be that bad. Sometimes people don’t have jobs. Sometimes people don’t have savings. A large portion of people live paycheck to paycheck.
In the situation where you don’t have savings or a job, here is what I’m imagining. The majority would have family or a friend they could stay with until they get back on their feet, which doesn’t seem that bad. For those who don’t have anyone to turn to, I assume homeless shelters would be an option, as opposed to literally dying on the streets without food, water or shelter. Homeless shelters do provide basic needs, so if you want to be really hardcore with the “happiness is all in your head” stuff, you should still in theory be ok. But I don’t know much about what it’s truly like; maybe there’s more to it than that. On that note, to be clear, I don’t mean to come across as insensitive or anything. I fully acknowledge that I might be wrong here. What I’m trying to do is explain what my model is and figure out where it might be wrong.
To me that nudges things somewhat, but isn’t a game changer. I don’t think it makes it 10x less bad or anything.
Fair enough. As a leaning-utilitarian, I personally share your intuition that it isn’t 10x bad (if I had to choose between coronavirus and ending negative consequences of live-style factors for one year, I don’t have a strong intuition in favor of coronavirus). Psychologically speaking, from the perspective of average deontological Joe, I think that it (in some sense) is/feels 10x as bad.
Is that really a possibility? I imagine that governments would impose a strict quarantine before letting it get that bad.
10% is unlikely but possible—not because of the coronavirus itself alone but because of the potential for systemic failure of our healthcare system (based on this comment). I think it’s likely that governments may impose a strict quarantine before it gets that bad or (alternatively) bite the bullet and let coronavirus victims die to triage young people with more salient medical needs.
In the situation where you don’t have savings or a job, here is what I’m imagining. The majority would have family or a friend they could stay with until they get back on their feet, which doesn’t seem that bad.
I partially agree with this. Frankly, as a well-off person myself, I’m not exactly sure what people would do in that situation. Conditioned on having friends or (non-abusive) family with the appropriate economic runway to be supportive, I agree that it wouldn’t be that bad. However these (in my sphere) are often significant contributing factors to being low-income in the first place.For low-income families, things also get messier to do the need-to-support-people being built in.
Homeless shelters do provide basic needs, so if you want to be really hardcore with the “happiness is all in your head” stuff, you should still in theory be ok. But I don’t know much about what it’s truly like; maybe there’s more to it than that.
I agree that this kind of stoicism helps (I resonate a lot with stoicism as a philosophy myself). But I view this as more of a mental skill that is built-up rather than something that people start doing immediately when thrust into lower-standad-of-living situations. Hedonic adaptation takes time and the time it takes before setting in can also be unpleasant. I’d also like to push-back a little on the idea of hedonic adapation with respect to losing money because there is a correlation between measures of happiness and income which only starts breaking down around $50k.
But I view this as more of a mental skill that is built-up rather than something that people start doing immediately when thrust into lower-standad-of-living situations.
That’s a great point. I got caught up thinking about how (I think) people should respond as opposed to thinking about how it’ll actually play out in practice. That moves me a few more steps towards thinking that it is more harmful.
I totally agree that MMM got quite a few things wrong in that post. It’s caused me to decrease my confidence in him too. However, the lifestyle factors point didn’t strike me as one of those. We certainly shouldn’t take his word for it, but it seems worth considering the question.
Those are some good points you make, thank you. I agree that there is something to be said about how “lifestyle factors” are a conscious choice that people made. To me that nudges things somewhat, but isn’t a game changer. I don’t think it makes it 10x less bad or anything.
The economic impact is a point that I think is crucial to the question of how bad this really is, and I think it’s related to the questions I pose about how bad is it really to have less money. If bad economic impact means lower standard of living, and lower standard of living isn’t really that impactful on happiness, then maybe bad economic impact isn’t that bad. But I suspect that there are things I’m overlooking, and that bad economic impact is in fact relatively bad. So then, I update my viewpoint to being that it’s a notable amount worse than lifestyle factors deaths, but still in the same ballpark, not 10x worse. My confidence in the “how bad is it to have a bad economic impact” question is pretty wide though, because it’s not something I know much about.
Is that really a possibility? I imagine that governments would impose a strict quarantine before letting it get that bad.
In the situation where you don’t have savings or a job, here is what I’m imagining. The majority would have family or a friend they could stay with until they get back on their feet, which doesn’t seem that bad. For those who don’t have anyone to turn to, I assume homeless shelters would be an option, as opposed to literally dying on the streets without food, water or shelter. Homeless shelters do provide basic needs, so if you want to be really hardcore with the “happiness is all in your head” stuff, you should still in theory be ok. But I don’t know much about what it’s truly like; maybe there’s more to it than that. On that note, to be clear, I don’t mean to come across as insensitive or anything. I fully acknowledge that I might be wrong here. What I’m trying to do is explain what my model is and figure out where it might be wrong.
Fair enough. As a leaning-utilitarian, I personally share your intuition that it isn’t 10x bad (if I had to choose between coronavirus and ending negative consequences of live-style factors for one year, I don’t have a strong intuition in favor of coronavirus). Psychologically speaking, from the perspective of average deontological Joe, I think that it (in some sense) is/feels 10x as bad.
10% is unlikely but possible—not because of the coronavirus itself alone but because of the potential for systemic failure of our healthcare system (based on this comment). I think it’s likely that governments may impose a strict quarantine before it gets that bad or (alternatively) bite the bullet and let coronavirus victims die to triage young people with more salient medical needs.
I partially agree with this. Frankly, as a well-off person myself, I’m not exactly sure what people would do in that situation. Conditioned on having friends or (non-abusive) family with the appropriate economic runway to be supportive, I agree that it wouldn’t be that bad. However these (in my sphere) are often significant contributing factors to being low-income in the first place.For low-income families, things also get messier to do the need-to-support-people being built in.
I agree that this kind of stoicism helps (I resonate a lot with stoicism as a philosophy myself). But I view this as more of a mental skill that is built-up rather than something that people start doing immediately when thrust into lower-standad-of-living situations. Hedonic adaptation takes time and the time it takes before setting in can also be unpleasant. I’d also like to push-back a little on the idea of hedonic adapation with respect to losing money because there is a correlation between measures of happiness and income which only starts breaking down around $50k.
That’s a great point. I got caught up thinking about how (I think) people should respond as opposed to thinking about how it’ll actually play out in practice. That moves me a few more steps towards thinking that it is more harmful.