Well, people prophesying doom in general have a pretty poor track record, so if that’s all we know, our prior should be that any such person is likely to be very wrong.
Of course, most people throughout history who have prophesied doom have had in mind a religious sort of doom. People prophesying doom from technological advance specifically have a better track record. The Luddites were correct, for example. (Their chosen remedy left something to be desired, of course; but that is common, sadly. Identifying the problem does not, by itself, suffice to solve the problem.) And we’ve had quite a bit of doom from technological advance. Indeed, as technology has advanced, we’ve had more and more doom from that advance.
So, on the whole, I’d say that applying the reasoning I describe to people prophesying doom from technological advance is that there is probably something to what they say, even if their specific predictions are not spot-on.
This is in reference to the Luddites, I suppose? If so, “some people’s jobs being automated” is rather a glib description of the early effects of industrialization. There was considerable disruption and chaos, which, indeed, is “doom”, of more or less the sort that the Luddites predicted. (They never claimed that the world would end as a result of the new machines, as far as I know.)
Well, people prophesying doom in general have a pretty poor track record, so if that’s all we know, our prior should be that any such person is likely to be very wrong.
Of course, most people throughout history who have prophesied doom have had in mind a religious sort of doom. People prophesying doom from technological advance specifically have a better track record. The Luddites were correct, for example. (Their chosen remedy left something to be desired, of course; but that is common, sadly. Identifying the problem does not, by itself, suffice to solve the problem.) And we’ve had quite a bit of doom from technological advance. Indeed, as technology has advanced, we’ve had more and more doom from that advance.
So, on the whole, I’d say that applying the reasoning I describe to people prophesying doom from technological advance is that there is probably something to what they say, even if their specific predictions are not spot-on.
You consider some people’s jobs being automated an instance of “doom”?
This is in reference to the Luddites, I suppose? If so, “some people’s jobs being automated” is rather a glib description of the early effects of industrialization. There was considerable disruption and chaos, which, indeed, is “doom”, of more or less the sort that the Luddites predicted. (They never claimed that the world would end as a result of the new machines, as far as I know.)