This is a task for robotics, and not an easy one. I already mentioned robotics as a possible but slow-burning way this happens, and I thought you were saying not robotics, just software.
Replacing teachers and tutors, massive uphaul in education.
Ok, maybe? I buy one can get significant improvements, but mainly due to teachers being grossly understaffed compared to what is best for kids, and the possibilities of a highly accessible if fairly shitty version of mastery learning. This would take a lot of schlep / context specific building, and would still require teachers—maybe almost as many TBH.
Replacing medical advice and guidance much more so Google Search already did.
So you don’t think they’re enough capability to replace 50-100M jobs[1] in the US over the next 5-10 years? (I think this could happen from just the current generation with better scaffolding/products/diffusion, and even more so if the models continue to improve).
If you read the thread, you will see that I did not make a claim like that. I’m observing you making confident strong claims, and asking for your compelling reasons for that (and getting very little in response, which is alarming). I suppose if I were guessing, I would say no I do not expect that to happen in 5 years on the back of LLMs. It could happen in 10-20 years with robotics perhaps, e.g. several million transportation jobs replaced by self-driving vehicles that use a bit of LLMs sprinkled in, many millions of construction and manufacturing jobs made 2x higher leverage (say), many millions of retail workers made higher leverage (supervising restocking / warehouse / cleaning robots rather than doing those tasks themselves), etc. There’s a lot of “bits” jobs that I’m somewhat skeptical about them being super-duper replaced, e.g. management, finance, admin, healthcare, etc., e.g. because they are too much needing reliability or accountability or inexploitability or similar. I could definitely be mistaken about that part, but I don’t see it immediately, which is why I’m asking for some specifics. But that’s not what you’re describing, and you sound confident, but right now I think you’re just not thinking clearly about it and just getting excited because it does some cool things.
That’s already being replaced without LLMs.
This is a task for robotics, and not an easy one. I already mentioned robotics as a possible but slow-burning way this happens, and I thought you were saying not robotics, just software.
Ok, maybe? I buy one can get significant improvements, but mainly due to teachers being grossly understaffed compared to what is best for kids, and the possibilities of a highly accessible if fairly shitty version of mastery learning. This would take a lot of schlep / context specific building, and would still require teachers—maybe almost as many TBH.
Yes? Seems generally fairly incremental?
So you don’t think they’re enough capability to replace 50-100M jobs[1] in the US over the next 5-10 years? (I think this could happen from just the current generation with better scaffolding/products/diffusion, and even more so if the models continue to improve).
This is measuriing in term of people’s occupations, but could instead weight it by fraction of the economy. I’m not sure how that’ll net out.
Here’s a breakdown of jobs in the US: https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm
If you read the thread, you will see that I did not make a claim like that. I’m observing you making confident strong claims, and asking for your compelling reasons for that (and getting very little in response, which is alarming). I suppose if I were guessing, I would say no I do not expect that to happen in 5 years on the back of LLMs. It could happen in 10-20 years with robotics perhaps, e.g. several million transportation jobs replaced by self-driving vehicles that use a bit of LLMs sprinkled in, many millions of construction and manufacturing jobs made 2x higher leverage (say), many millions of retail workers made higher leverage (supervising restocking / warehouse / cleaning robots rather than doing those tasks themselves), etc. There’s a lot of “bits” jobs that I’m somewhat skeptical about them being super-duper replaced, e.g. management, finance, admin, healthcare, etc., e.g. because they are too much needing reliability or accountability or inexploitability or similar. I could definitely be mistaken about that part, but I don’t see it immediately, which is why I’m asking for some specifics. But that’s not what you’re describing, and you sound confident, but right now I think you’re just not thinking clearly about it and just getting excited because it does some cool things.