If you read the thread, you will see that I did not make a claim like that. I’m observing you making confident strong claims, and asking for your compelling reasons for that (and getting very little in response, which is alarming). I suppose if I were guessing, I would say no I do not expect that to happen in 5 years on the back of LLMs. It could happen in 10-20 years with robotics perhaps, e.g. several million transportation jobs replaced by self-driving vehicles that use a bit of LLMs sprinkled in, many millions of construction and manufacturing jobs made 2x higher leverage (say), many millions of retail workers made higher leverage (supervising restocking / warehouse / cleaning robots rather than doing those tasks themselves), etc. There’s a lot of “bits” jobs that I’m somewhat skeptical about them being super-duper replaced, e.g. management, finance, admin, healthcare, etc., e.g. because they are too much needing reliability or accountability or inexploitability or similar. I could definitely be mistaken about that part, but I don’t see it immediately, which is why I’m asking for some specifics. But that’s not what you’re describing, and you sound confident, but right now I think you’re just not thinking clearly about it and just getting excited because it does some cool things.
If you read the thread, you will see that I did not make a claim like that. I’m observing you making confident strong claims, and asking for your compelling reasons for that (and getting very little in response, which is alarming). I suppose if I were guessing, I would say no I do not expect that to happen in 5 years on the back of LLMs. It could happen in 10-20 years with robotics perhaps, e.g. several million transportation jobs replaced by self-driving vehicles that use a bit of LLMs sprinkled in, many millions of construction and manufacturing jobs made 2x higher leverage (say), many millions of retail workers made higher leverage (supervising restocking / warehouse / cleaning robots rather than doing those tasks themselves), etc. There’s a lot of “bits” jobs that I’m somewhat skeptical about them being super-duper replaced, e.g. management, finance, admin, healthcare, etc., e.g. because they are too much needing reliability or accountability or inexploitability or similar. I could definitely be mistaken about that part, but I don’t see it immediately, which is why I’m asking for some specifics. But that’s not what you’re describing, and you sound confident, but right now I think you’re just not thinking clearly about it and just getting excited because it does some cool things.