The assumption of “US-OGI-1” works well, but I think it’s misleading to say that “the OGI model itself is geographically neutral—it could in principle be implemented by any technologically capable nation as host, or by multiple different countries as hosts for different AGI ventures.”
Part of the appeal of this proposal is that “norms and laws around property ownership, investor rights, and corporate governance are comparatively well established and integrated with civilian society”, but this clearly doesn’t hold everywhere.
The second-most-likely country for a leading AGI lab to emerge is China, and we can imagine a “China-OGI-1” scenario or a multipolar “US-OGI-n + China-OGI-n” scenario. In China, a few issues come to mind:
1. Weaker/more arbitrary corporate law and property rights, so no credible investor protections 2. More state/party interference in law, rights and governance 3. Weaker, less independent corporate governance
I’m curious if you think that this would still be a good model, assuming China-OGI-1 or a multipolar scenario. Or does it make more sense to say that OGI is only a good model where these norms and laws are actually well-established and integrated?
It becomes partly terminological, but I would say that China-OGI-1 would by definition be a situation in which global investors in a Chinese company that develops AGI enjoy reasonably reliable assurances that their property rights would be largely respected. It seems maybe more attractive than the closest alternatives (i.e. a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese company and international investors don’t have reasonable assurances that their rights would be protected, or a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese Manhattan project)? So the factors you point to don’t affect the desirability of China-OGI-1 but rather the probability of that version of the OGI model becoming instantiated.
Btw, I should maybe also reemphasize that I’m putting forward the model more so that it can be considered alongside other models that have been proposed, rather than as something that I have a strong or definitive commitment to. I could easily imagine coming to favor other approaches, either as a result of arguments or because of changes in the world that alters the practical landscape. I generally have a high level of uncertainty about the politics/governance/macrostrategy of AI (doubly so in the Chinese context, where I have even less understanding), and I tend to think we’ll need to feel and negotiate our way forward one tentative step at a time rather than operate on a fixed plan.
The assumption of “US-OGI-1” works well, but I think it’s misleading to say that “the OGI model itself is geographically neutral—it could in principle be implemented by any technologically capable nation as host, or by multiple different countries as hosts for different AGI ventures.”
Part of the appeal of this proposal is that “norms and laws around property ownership, investor rights, and corporate governance are comparatively well established and integrated with civilian society”, but this clearly doesn’t hold everywhere.
The second-most-likely country for a leading AGI lab to emerge is China, and we can imagine a “China-OGI-1” scenario or a multipolar “US-OGI-n + China-OGI-n” scenario. In China, a few issues come to mind:
1. Weaker/more arbitrary corporate law and property rights, so no credible investor protections
2. More state/party interference in law, rights and governance
3. Weaker, less independent corporate governance
I’m curious if you think that this would still be a good model, assuming China-OGI-1 or a multipolar scenario. Or does it make more sense to say that OGI is only a good model where these norms and laws are actually well-established and integrated?
It becomes partly terminological, but I would say that China-OGI-1 would by definition be a situation in which global investors in a Chinese company that develops AGI enjoy reasonably reliable assurances that their property rights would be largely respected. It seems maybe more attractive than the closest alternatives (i.e. a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese company and international investors don’t have reasonable assurances that their rights would be protected, or a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese Manhattan project)? So the factors you point to don’t affect the desirability of China-OGI-1 but rather the probability of that version of the OGI model becoming instantiated.
Btw, I should maybe also reemphasize that I’m putting forward the model more so that it can be considered alongside other models that have been proposed, rather than as something that I have a strong or definitive commitment to. I could easily imagine coming to favor other approaches, either as a result of arguments or because of changes in the world that alters the practical landscape. I generally have a high level of uncertainty about the politics/governance/macrostrategy of AI (doubly so in the Chinese context, where I have even less understanding), and I tend to think we’ll need to feel and negotiate our way forward one tentative step at a time rather than operate on a fixed plan.