It becomes partly terminological, but I would say that China-OGI-1 would by definition be a situation in which global investors in a Chinese company that develops AGI enjoy reasonably reliable assurances that their property rights would be largely respected. It seems maybe more attractive than the closest alternatives (i.e. a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese company and international investors don’t have reasonable assurances that their rights would be protected, or a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese Manhattan project)? So the factors you point to don’t affect the desirability of China-OGI-1 but rather the probability of that version of the OGI model becoming instantiated.
Btw, I should maybe also reemphasize that I’m putting forward the model more so that it can be considered alongside other models that have been proposed, rather than as something that I have a strong or definitive commitment to. I could easily imagine coming to favor other approaches, either as a result of arguments or because of changes in the world that alters the practical landscape. I generally have a high level of uncertainty about the politics/governance/macrostrategy of AI (doubly so in the Chinese context, where I have even less understanding), and I tend to think we’ll need to feel and negotiate our way forward one tentative step at a time rather than operate on a fixed plan.
It becomes partly terminological, but I would say that China-OGI-1 would by definition be a situation in which global investors in a Chinese company that develops AGI enjoy reasonably reliable assurances that their property rights would be largely respected. It seems maybe more attractive than the closest alternatives (i.e. a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese company and international investors don’t have reasonable assurances that their rights would be protected, or a situation in which AGI is developed by a Chinese Manhattan project)? So the factors you point to don’t affect the desirability of China-OGI-1 but rather the probability of that version of the OGI model becoming instantiated.
Btw, I should maybe also reemphasize that I’m putting forward the model more so that it can be considered alongside other models that have been proposed, rather than as something that I have a strong or definitive commitment to. I could easily imagine coming to favor other approaches, either as a result of arguments or because of changes in the world that alters the practical landscape. I generally have a high level of uncertainty about the politics/governance/macrostrategy of AI (doubly so in the Chinese context, where I have even less understanding), and I tend to think we’ll need to feel and negotiate our way forward one tentative step at a time rather than operate on a fixed plan.