Assuming you’re not trying to level up your personal epistemic practices in large part because it’s fun, and a more interesting hobby than flower arranging (or whatever), then my general model for the best that serious rationality training can be expected to deliver is a boost in your exponent that may be worth the up front cost of time spent studying.
With that in mind, it would not surprise me if a few people from this community ended up as billionaires 40 years from now (or maybe winning a Nobel in 25 years based on work done 10 years from now?), but I wouldn’t expect there to be dramatic impacts right away, and I wouldn’t entirely attribute the long term positive outcomes to the affect of the community so much as to the dramatic filtering that participation in the community represents. The fact that a number of people here use LW for as their “procrastinating distraction” indicates a lot about their character that the site isn’t causing so much as revealing.
Learning to read the right books at twice your previous rate using half the time doesn’t change much in the short term, but it means that 20 years from now you’re much more likely to be exceptionally knowledgeable in your chosen subjects, and the subjects are likely to be important to whatever it is that you actually care about at that time. Also, a lot of what pragmatic clear thinking does is simply make disasters less common so that personal growth trajectories (net wealth, learning opportunities, personal mental health, social networks, etc) hit fewer speed bumps.
Learning to read the right books at twice your previous rate using half the time doesn’t change much in the short term, but it means that 20 years from now you’re much more likely to be exceptionally knowledgeable in your chosen subjects, and the subjects are likely to be important to whatever it is that you actually care about at that time.
This reminds me of that famous essay which I first read a few weeks ago, You and Your Research. Specifically the part where he talks about how a little additional study per day adds up over time.
Assuming you’re not trying to level up your personal epistemic practices in large part because it’s fun, and a more interesting hobby than flower arranging (or whatever), then my general model for the best that serious rationality training can be expected to deliver is a boost in your exponent that may be worth the up front cost of time spent studying.
With that in mind, it would not surprise me if a few people from this community ended up as billionaires 40 years from now (or maybe winning a Nobel in 25 years based on work done 10 years from now?), but I wouldn’t expect there to be dramatic impacts right away, and I wouldn’t entirely attribute the long term positive outcomes to the affect of the community so much as to the dramatic filtering that participation in the community represents. The fact that a number of people here use LW for as their “procrastinating distraction” indicates a lot about their character that the site isn’t causing so much as revealing.
Learning to read the right books at twice your previous rate using half the time doesn’t change much in the short term, but it means that 20 years from now you’re much more likely to be exceptionally knowledgeable in your chosen subjects, and the subjects are likely to be important to whatever it is that you actually care about at that time. Also, a lot of what pragmatic clear thinking does is simply make disasters less common so that personal growth trajectories (net wealth, learning opportunities, personal mental health, social networks, etc) hit fewer speed bumps.
This reminds me of that famous essay which I first read a few weeks ago, You and Your Research. Specifically the part where he talks about how a little additional study per day adds up over time.