There are two ways you can to do reasoning.
1) You build a theory about Bayesian updating and how it should work.
2) You run studies of how humans reasons and when they reason successfully. You identify when and how human reason correctly.
If I would argue that taking a specific drug helps you with illness X, the only argument you would likely accept is an empiric study. That’s independent with whether or not you can find a flaw in casual reason of why I think drug X should help with an illness. At least if you believe in evidence-based medicine.
The reason is that in the past theory based arguments often turned out to be wrong in the field of medicine.
We don’t live in a time where we don’t have anyone doing decision science. Whether or not people are simply blinded by fiction or whether it helps reasoning is an empirical question.
Ok, I think see the core of what you’re talking about, especially “Whether or not people are simply blinded by fiction or whether it helps reasoning is an empirical question.” This sounds like an outside view versus inside view distinction: I’ve been focused on “What should my inside view look like” and using outside view tools to modify that when possible (such as knowledge of a bias from decision science.) I think you and maybe Mark are trying to say “the inside view is useless or counter-productive here; only the outside view will be of any use” so that in the absence of outside view evidence, we should simply not attempt to reason further unless it’s a super-clear case, like Mark illustrates in his other comment.
My intuition is that this is incorrect, but it reminds me of the Hanson-Yudkowsky debates on outside vs. weak inside view, and I think I don’t have a strong enough grasp to clarify my intuition sufficiently right now. I’m going to try and pay serious attention to this issue in the future though, and would appreciate if you have any references that you think might clarify.
It’s not only outside vs. inside view. It’s knowing things is really hard. Humans are by nature overconfident. Life isn’t fair. The fact that empiric evidence is hard to get doesn’t make theoretical reasoning about the issue any more likely to be correct.
I rather trust a doctor with medical experience (has an inside view) to translate empirical studies in a way that applies directly to me than someone who reasons simply based on reading the study and who has no medical experience.
I do sin from time from time and act overconfident. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. Skepticism is a virtue. I like Foersters book “Truth is the invention of a liar” (unfortunately that book is in German, and I haven’t read other writing by him).
It doesn’t really gives answers but it makes the unknowing more graspable.
There are two ways you can to do reasoning. 1) You build a theory about Bayesian updating and how it should work. 2) You run studies of how humans reasons and when they reason successfully. You identify when and how human reason correctly.
If I would argue that taking a specific drug helps you with illness X, the only argument you would likely accept is an empiric study. That’s independent with whether or not you can find a flaw in casual reason of why I think drug X should help with an illness. At least if you believe in evidence-based medicine. The reason is that in the past theory based arguments often turned out to be wrong in the field of medicine.
We don’t live in a time where we don’t have anyone doing decision science. Whether or not people are simply blinded by fiction or whether it helps reasoning is an empirical question.
Ok, I think see the core of what you’re talking about, especially “Whether or not people are simply blinded by fiction or whether it helps reasoning is an empirical question.” This sounds like an outside view versus inside view distinction: I’ve been focused on “What should my inside view look like” and using outside view tools to modify that when possible (such as knowledge of a bias from decision science.) I think you and maybe Mark are trying to say “the inside view is useless or counter-productive here; only the outside view will be of any use” so that in the absence of outside view evidence, we should simply not attempt to reason further unless it’s a super-clear case, like Mark illustrates in his other comment.
My intuition is that this is incorrect, but it reminds me of the Hanson-Yudkowsky debates on outside vs. weak inside view, and I think I don’t have a strong enough grasp to clarify my intuition sufficiently right now. I’m going to try and pay serious attention to this issue in the future though, and would appreciate if you have any references that you think might clarify.
It’s not only outside vs. inside view. It’s knowing things is really hard. Humans are by nature overconfident. Life isn’t fair. The fact that empiric evidence is hard to get doesn’t make theoretical reasoning about the issue any more likely to be correct.
I rather trust a doctor with medical experience (has an inside view) to translate empirical studies in a way that applies directly to me than someone who reasons simply based on reading the study and who has no medical experience.
I do sin from time from time and act overconfident. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. Skepticism is a virtue. I like Foersters book “Truth is the invention of a liar” (unfortunately that book is in German, and I haven’t read other writing by him). It doesn’t really gives answers but it makes the unknowing more graspable.