you’re making a conditional prediction of a state of the world given your epistemic state at the time.
I think this is a crux. IMO, you can’t predict the state of the world, since you have no access to that except via your perceptions/experiences. You’re making a prediction of a future epistemic state (aka experience), given (of course) your current epistemic state, conditional on which prediction you make (what will happen if you guess either way, and if you’re right/wrong).
It’s perfectly reasonable to bet 1⁄3 if the reveal/payout is instantaneous and multiple, and to bet 1⁄2 if the reveal/payout is post-merge and singular. Each is correct, for predicting different future experiences.
I think this is a crux. IMO, you can’t predict the state of the world, since you have no access to that except via your perceptions/experiences. You’re making a prediction of a future epistemic state (aka experience), given (of course) your current epistemic state, conditional on which prediction you make (what will happen if you guess either way, and if you’re right/wrong).
It’s perfectly reasonable to bet 1⁄3 if the reveal/payout is instantaneous and multiple, and to bet 1⁄2 if the reveal/payout is post-merge and singular. Each is correct, for predicting different future experiences.