I’m most interested in the question of NATO membership of Finland (GDP $270B vs. Ukraine’s $150B, population 5M to Ukraine’s 44M). The Finnish government has been neutral for a long time, while maintaining the option of NATO membership (brought up by the PM in January and discussed again today); the Russian government has at various points threatened that they would start WWIII over Finland joining NATO.
There already exist security guarantees, and Finland has a capable military, such that I don’t think a Russian invasion of Finland is advisable, and I don’t think it’s part of Russian revanchism, such that it seems unlikely that there would be an invasion even after invasions of Ukraine, Georgia, and so on. But the potential for escalation here seems pretty worrying to me (especially given the way that it might be in no one’s interest).
A poll just conducted by Finland’s public broadcasting company shows the majority of public opinion in favor of NATO membership for the first time in history, with 53% in favor, 28% against and 19% uncertain. (Only 30% were in favor back in January.)
A citizen’s initiative asking for a national referendum on NATO membership has also gotten 69K signatures in seven days, with 50K signatures being the threshold required for Parliament to consider it.
“Has close ties with NATO” is quite different from actually being a member of NATO and protected by its safety guarantees. It wouldn’t e.g. prevent Russia from pulling the same move as in Ukraine, first invading and then threatening nuclear retaliation if NATO interferes. Whereas if Finland was a member, then NATO’s commitment to retaliate would be in force before any invasion, so Russia couldn’t play that card.
I don’t expect another military attack against a neigbouring country of Russia soon—it takes some time to consolidate power after an invasion (if that really is Russia’s objective).
What I do think likely is international treaties between Russia and some non-NATO former Sowjet republics giving Russia additional rights, maybe military bases, etc. Because Russia’s “bargaining position” towards its neigbours should have increased considerably.
After Ukraine is conquered, what next?
I’m most interested in the question of NATO membership of Finland (GDP $270B vs. Ukraine’s $150B, population 5M to Ukraine’s 44M). The Finnish government has been neutral for a long time, while maintaining the option of NATO membership (brought up by the PM in January and discussed again today); the Russian government has at various points threatened that they would start WWIII over Finland joining NATO.
There already exist security guarantees, and Finland has a capable military, such that I don’t think a Russian invasion of Finland is advisable, and I don’t think it’s part of Russian revanchism, such that it seems unlikely that there would be an invasion even after invasions of Ukraine, Georgia, and so on. But the potential for escalation here seems pretty worrying to me (especially given the way that it might be in no one’s interest).
A poll just conducted by Finland’s public broadcasting company shows the majority of public opinion in favor of NATO membership for the first time in history, with 53% in favor, 28% against and 19% uncertain. (Only 30% were in favor back in January.)
A citizen’s initiative asking for a national referendum on NATO membership has also gotten 69K signatures in seven days, with 50K signatures being the threshold required for Parliament to consider it.
I assume this will be a largely symbolic move as Finland already has close ties with NATO, right?
“Has close ties with NATO” is quite different from actually being a member of NATO and protected by its safety guarantees. It wouldn’t e.g. prevent Russia from pulling the same move as in Ukraine, first invading and then threatening nuclear retaliation if NATO interferes. Whereas if Finland was a member, then NATO’s commitment to retaliate would be in force before any invasion, so Russia couldn’t play that card.
I don’t expect another military attack against a neigbouring country of Russia soon—it takes some time to consolidate power after an invasion (if that really is Russia’s objective).
What I do think likely is international treaties between Russia and some non-NATO former Sowjet republics giving Russia additional rights, maybe military bases, etc. Because Russia’s “bargaining position” towards its neigbours should have increased considerably.