[Time Value of Money] The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price.
How does this strategy compare to shorting bonds? Both have the same payoff structure (they make money if the discount rate goes up) but it’s not clear to me which is a better deal. I suppose it depends on whether you expect Polymarket investors to have especially high demand for cash.
Yeah, I think the time value of Polymarket cash doesn’t track the time value of money in the global economy especially closely:
If Polymarket cash were completely fungible with regular cash, you’d expect the Jesus market to reflect the overall interest rate of the economy. In practice, though, getting money into Polymarket is kind of annoying (you need crypto) and illegal for Americans. Plus, it takes a few days, and trade opportunities often evaporate in a matter of minutes or hours! And that’s not to mention the regulatory uncertainty: maybe the US government will freeze Polymarket’s assets and traders won’t be able to get their money out?
And so it’s not unreasonable to have opinions on the future time value of Polymarket cash that differs substantially from your opinions on the future time value of money.
How does this strategy compare to shorting bonds? Both have the same payoff structure (they make money if the discount rate goes up) but it’s not clear to me which is a better deal. I suppose it depends on whether you expect Polymarket investors to have especially high demand for cash.
Yeah, I think the time value of Polymarket cash doesn’t track the time value of money in the global economy especially closely:
And so it’s not unreasonable to have opinions on the future time value of Polymarket cash that differs substantially from your opinions on the future time value of money.
(Ignoring liquidity rewards) Therefore, other platform users have access to similar lucrative return rates (Polymarket and Manifold fund liquidity without meaningful revenue) as those fireselling, so best returns may be ignoring obvious longterm markets altogether:
https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3#jdUj58EdDXBbF8ZNyXaT