Without assigning my own normative judgment, isn’t this just standard trader behavior/professional ethics? It seems simple enough to justify thus:
Two parties want to make a bet (trade). I create a platform to facilitate such a bet (trade). Both parties are better off by their own lights after such a trade. I helped them do something that makes them each happier, and make a healthy profit doing so. As long as I’m not doing something otherwise underhanded/unethical, what’s the problem here?
I don’t think it’s conceptually any different from e.g. offering memecoins on your crypto exchange, or (an atheist) selling religious texts on Amazon.
Oh, I don’t think it was at all morally bad for Polymarket to make this market—just not strategic, from the standpoint of having people take them seriously.
How serious are they about respectability and people taking them seriously in the short term vs selfishly wanting more money and altruistically just wanting to make prediction markets more popular?
I imagine that having a “Jesus returns this year” question at 3% affirmative is also not very good for their reputation.
Yeah, honestly I have no idea why Polymarket created this question.
Marketing. It was odd enough for you to post about on LW!
Hypothetical conversation:
“You gotta prepare for the second coming, man, it’s this year!”
“It is not. Stop telling me that.”
“It is! The signs are all there! Do you even portents, bro?”
“I told you it’s not happening.”
“We work at a prediction market. I’ll buy yes. It’s happening.”
“No you won’t. You know it isn’t.”
“I so will, make the market.”
“This is stupid, I’m eating lunch.”
“Let’s make the market, dude.”
“Ugh, fine, it’s going to zero so fast.”
“More money for me!”
Without assigning my own normative judgment, isn’t this just standard trader behavior/professional ethics? It seems simple enough to justify thus:
I don’t think it’s conceptually any different from e.g. offering memecoins on your crypto exchange, or (an atheist) selling religious texts on Amazon.
Oh, I don’t think it was at all morally bad for Polymarket to make this market—just not strategic, from the standpoint of having people take them seriously.
How serious are they about respectability and people taking them seriously in the short term vs selfishly wanting more money and altruistically just wanting to make prediction markets more popular?