Consider two hypothesis: A says that everyone has a 1⁄6 chance of dying. B says that everyone else has a 1⁄6 chance of dying, but I survive for sure.
There’s no reason to only consider those two hypothesis.
If I would trust my memory, which I likely wouldn’t given the stakes my available data only suggest that there’s something that’s in common with my trials that’s not the case for the average person.
It could be that I did all my previous tries at a specific outside temperature and at that temperature prevents the bullet from getting fired. It could be bound to a specific location of firing the gun. It could be bound to a lot of other factors.
I have no reason to believe more strongly that I’m very special then that previous rounds of me playing the game share a systematic bias that’s not just due to me being me and I have no gurantee that this systematic bias will continue in the future.
Adding other hypothesis doesn’t fix the problem. For every hypothesis you can think of, theres a version of it that says “but I survive for sure” tacked on. This hypothesis can never lose evidence relative to the base version, but it can gain evidence anthropically. Eventually, these will get you. Yes, theres all sorts of considerations that are more relevant in a realistic scenario, thats not the point.
There’s no reason to only consider those two hypothesis.
If I would trust my memory, which I likely wouldn’t given the stakes my available data only suggest that there’s something that’s in common with my trials that’s not the case for the average person.
It could be that I did all my previous tries at a specific outside temperature and at that temperature prevents the bullet from getting fired. It could be bound to a specific location of firing the gun. It could be bound to a lot of other factors.
I have no reason to believe more strongly that I’m very special then that previous rounds of me playing the game share a systematic bias that’s not just due to me being me and I have no gurantee that this systematic bias will continue in the future.
Adding other hypothesis doesn’t fix the problem. For every hypothesis you can think of, theres a version of it that says “but I survive for sure” tacked on. This hypothesis can never lose evidence relative to the base version, but it can gain evidence anthropically. Eventually, these will get you. Yes, theres all sorts of considerations that are more relevant in a realistic scenario, thats not the point.
You don’t need to add other hypothesis to know that there might be unknown additional hypothesis.