Meshing together the beliefs that you are a holding a pistol and that you have survived all those times are hard to mesh. To the extent that you try to understand the “chances are low” stance you can’t imagine to be holding a pistol. We are in hypothetical lands and fighting the hypothetical might not be proper, but atleast to me there seems to be a a complexity asymmetry in that “I have survived” is very foggy on the details but the “1/6 chance” can answer many details and all kinds of interventions. Would your survival chance increase if athmospheric oxygen drops fivefold? The “I have survived” stance has no basis to answer yes or no. In pure hypothesis landia the 1/6th stance would also have these problems but in practise we know about chemistry and it is easy to reason that if the powder doesn’t go off then bullets are not that dangerous.
If I believe that red people need oxygen to live and I believe I am blue I do not believe that I need oxygen to live. You don’t live a generic life, you live a particular life. And this extends to impersonal things also. If you believe a coin is fair then it can come up heads or tails. If you believe it is fair under rainy conditions, cloudy conditions, under heavy magnetic fields and under gold rushes that can seem like a similar belief. But your sampling of the different kind of conditions are probably very different and knowing that we are under very magnetic environment might trigger a clause that maybe metal coins are not fair in these conditions.
Meshing together the beliefs that you are a holding a pistol and that you have survived all those times are hard to mesh. To the extent that you try to understand the “chances are low” stance you can’t imagine to be holding a pistol. We are in hypothetical lands and fighting the hypothetical might not be proper, but atleast to me there seems to be a a complexity asymmetry in that “I have survived” is very foggy on the details but the “1/6 chance” can answer many details and all kinds of interventions. Would your survival chance increase if athmospheric oxygen drops fivefold? The “I have survived” stance has no basis to answer yes or no. In pure hypothesis landia the 1/6th stance would also have these problems but in practise we know about chemistry and it is easy to reason that if the powder doesn’t go off then bullets are not that dangerous.
If I believe that red people need oxygen to live and I believe I am blue I do not believe that I need oxygen to live. You don’t live a generic life, you live a particular life. And this extends to impersonal things also. If you believe a coin is fair then it can come up heads or tails. If you believe it is fair under rainy conditions, cloudy conditions, under heavy magnetic fields and under gold rushes that can seem like a similar belief. But your sampling of the different kind of conditions are probably very different and knowing that we are under very magnetic environment might trigger a clause that maybe metal coins are not fair in these conditions.