I wonder whether “Person P is freaking out” might have mixed effects: Maybe for people who were previously inclined to like P and/or agree with P, it would move them in the right direction, and for people who were previously inclined to dislike P and/or disagree with P, it would move them in the wrong direction.
Like, I think that I feel disinclined to listen to (person who I think is unreasonable), but that I feel much more disinclined to listen to (person who I think is unreasonable and is being very rant-y and emotional about it).
It also depends on your target audience. (Which is basically what you said, just in slightly different words.) If you want to get Serious Researchers to listen to you and they aren’t already within the sub-sub-culture that is the rationality community and its immediate neighbors, then in many (most?) cases ranting and freaking out is probably going to be actively counterproductive to your cause. Same if you’re trying to build a reputation as a Serious Researcher, with a chance that decision makers who listen to Serious Researchers might listen to you. On the other hand, if your target audience is people who already trust you or who are already in your immediate sub-sub-tribe, and you don’t mind risking being labeled a crackpot by the wider world, then I can see why visibly freaking out could be helpful.
[Also, it goes without saying that not everybody agrees with Eliezer’s probability-of-doom estimates. Depending on your relative probabilities it might make perfect sense to work in a random startup, have a 401k, not visibly freak out, etc.]
I wonder whether “Person P is freaking out” might have mixed effects: Maybe for people who were previously inclined to like P and/or agree with P, it would move them in the right direction, and for people who were previously inclined to dislike P and/or disagree with P, it would move them in the wrong direction.
Like, I think that I feel disinclined to listen to (person who I think is unreasonable), but that I feel much more disinclined to listen to (person who I think is unreasonable and is being very rant-y and emotional about it).
It also depends on your target audience. (Which is basically what you said, just in slightly different words.) If you want to get Serious Researchers to listen to you and they aren’t already within the sub-sub-culture that is the rationality community and its immediate neighbors, then in many (most?) cases ranting and freaking out is probably going to be actively counterproductive to your cause. Same if you’re trying to build a reputation as a Serious Researcher, with a chance that decision makers who listen to Serious Researchers might listen to you. On the other hand, if your target audience is people who already trust you or who are already in your immediate sub-sub-tribe, and you don’t mind risking being labeled a crackpot by the wider world, then I can see why visibly freaking out could be helpful.
[Also, it goes without saying that not everybody agrees with Eliezer’s probability-of-doom estimates. Depending on your relative probabilities it might make perfect sense to work in a random startup, have a 401k, not visibly freak out, etc.]