Ah I wasn’t being super clear, but this does not go against what I was trying to say, which is that there wouldn’t be any like, unannounced and human-intended changes to the model. For example, Claude complained that, for the Anthropic provider:
No written guarantee that weights behind a dated ID are fixed.
I think whatever happened with openrouter and opus 4.6 falls under unintended inference deterioration. But I suppose that, from a user’s perspective, it doesn’t matter why there is performance deterioration.
Nice! Wish I’d been here sooner to fleece you on Manifold about your “willing to bet $100 to $1” :)
Ah I wasn’t being super clear, but this does not go against what I was trying to say, which is that there wouldn’t be any like, unannounced and human-intended changes to the model. For example, Claude complained that, for the Anthropic provider:
I think whatever happened with openrouter and opus 4.6 falls under unintended inference deterioration. But I suppose that, from a user’s perspective, it doesn’t matter why there is performance deterioration.
Well! In that case: https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/will-tim-hua-concede-his-bet