At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity....70%
Why do you draw attention to this question and how did you reach this estimate?
Unless you have knowledge of some change (eg, newspaper interest), this seems easy to estimate by the frequency of occurrence. This is a question about the steady state of the world, not about the future (modulo the not terribly rapid change in the number of megachurches). If you care enough to mention this, I’d expect you to care enough to have have some gut feeling estimate for this. In particular, 70% odds for the first such scandal to reach those who haven’t heard about earlier scandals (if any) is absurd (again, unless you know about some change).
This question was based on a combination of the base rate and the increasing number of megachurches.
In particular, 70% odds for the first such scandal to reach those who haven’t heard about earlier scandals (if any) is absurd (again, unless you know about some change).
But these scandals do occur. A naive base line rate puts them at around slightly over one every two years. Prior example scandals include Ted Haggard (2006) and Eddie Long (2010). I picked a rate slightly higher than the expected from the historical base rate primarily since the number of megachurchs has been growing over the last few years. (Note also that I used a stricter definition of megachurch than is often used. 2000 regular congregants is often the dividing line, not 3000).
Also, I strongly suspect that changing attitudes towards homosexuality in the US plays a role, although I don’t have a precise understanding of how I expect that to work.
Speaking roughly: my intuition is that when X is bad, a lot of people who have minor suspicions that someone they trust is doing X are motivated to pursue those suspicions, but when X is really really bad, those same people are instead motivated to not think about their suspicions. And I think the ratio of people who think homosexuality is really really bad to those who merely think it’s bad is decreasing.
Not to mention, of course, that illicit relationships by their nature can’t be kept secret from everyone—the other person in the relationship has to know—and the more acceptable the class of relationship becomes in the broader community the easier it is for the other person to reveal it.
I wonder if itemised bills for rentboys etc have turned up on any megachurch’s accounts. That would make for an amusing, if not very surprising, document leak.
Why do you draw attention to this question and how did you reach this estimate?
Unless you have knowledge of some change (eg, newspaper interest), this seems easy to estimate by the frequency of occurrence. This is a question about the steady state of the world, not about the future (modulo the not terribly rapid change in the number of megachurches). If you care enough to mention this, I’d expect you to care enough to have have some gut feeling estimate for this. In particular, 70% odds for the first such scandal to reach those who haven’t heard about earlier scandals (if any) is absurd (again, unless you know about some change).
Compare this to your prediction about RH!
This question was based on a combination of the base rate and the increasing number of megachurches.
But these scandals do occur. A naive base line rate puts them at around slightly over one every two years. Prior example scandals include Ted Haggard (2006) and Eddie Long (2010). I picked a rate slightly higher than the expected from the historical base rate primarily since the number of megachurchs has been growing over the last few years. (Note also that I used a stricter definition of megachurch than is often used. 2000 regular congregants is often the dividing line, not 3000).
There’s another reason to expect an increasing rate—it’s harder to keep secrets these days.
Yes.
Also, I strongly suspect that changing attitudes towards homosexuality in the US plays a role, although I don’t have a precise understanding of how I expect that to work.
Speaking roughly: my intuition is that when X is bad, a lot of people who have minor suspicions that someone they trust is doing X are motivated to pursue those suspicions, but when X is really really bad, those same people are instead motivated to not think about their suspicions. And I think the ratio of people who think homosexuality is really really bad to those who merely think it’s bad is decreasing.
Not to mention, of course, that illicit relationships by their nature can’t be kept secret from everyone—the other person in the relationship has to know—and the more acceptable the class of relationship becomes in the broader community the easier it is for the other person to reveal it.
I wonder if itemised bills for rentboys etc have turned up on any megachurch’s accounts. That would make for an amusing, if not very surprising, document leak.