My model is that even if SamA is right about EY’s important role in catalyzing OpenAI, it’s not clear to me that OpenAI’s work was pivotal for capabilities (relative to whatever would have happened if OpenAI hadn’t been created), or that doomerism will be an important force for moving people into AGI capabilities research going forward. Now that AGI is suddenly well within the Overton window, people will just pursue capabilities because of the profit, power and status motives.
My model is that even if SamA is right about EY’s important role in catalyzing OpenAI, it’s not clear to me that OpenAI’s work was pivotal for capabilities (relative to whatever would have happened if OpenAI hadn’t been created), or that doomerism will be an important force for moving people into AGI capabilities research going forward. Now that AGI is suddenly well within the Overton window, people will just pursue capabilities because of the profit, power and status motives.