Yes, I’m unsure about the multiplication factors on “likelihood of bad actor even trying to make a bioweapon” and on “likelihood of succeeding given the attempt”. I think probably both are closer to 4x than 1.25x. But I think it’s understandable that this claim on my part seems implausible. Hopefully at some point I’ll have a more objective measure available.
Yes, I’m unsure about the multiplication factors on “likelihood of bad actor even trying to make a bioweapon” and on “likelihood of succeeding given the attempt”. I think probably both are closer to 4x than 1.25x. But I think it’s understandable that this claim on my part seems implausible. Hopefully at some point I’ll have a more objective measure available.