The following advice is anecdotal and is a very clear example of “other optimizing”. So don’t take it with a grain of salt, take it with at least a table spoon.
I’ve found that engaging people about their rationality habits is frequently something that needs to be done in a manner which is significantly more confrontational than what is considered polite conversation. Being told that how you think is flawed at a fundamental level is very difficult to deal with, and people will be inclined to not deal with it. So you need to talk to people about the real world consequences of their biases and very specifically describe how acting in a less biased manner will improve their life and the lives of those around them.
Anecdotally I’ve found this to be true in convincing people to donate money to the AMF. My friends will be happy to agree that they should do so, but unless prodded repeatedly and pointedly they will not actually take the next step of donating. I accept that my friends are not a good sample to generalize from (my social circle tends to include those who are already slightly more rational than the average bear to begin with). So if you want to convince someone to be more rational, bug them about it. Once a week for two months. Specificity is key here, talk about real life examples where their biases are causing problems. The more concrete the better since it allows them to have a clear picture of what improvement will look like.
I’ve found that engaging people about their rationality habits is frequently something that needs to be done in a manner which is significantly more confrontational than what is considered polite conversation. Being told that how you think is flawed at a fundamental level is very difficult to deal with, and people will be inclined to not deal with it. … So if you want to convince someone to be more rational, bug them about it.
Let me make just a small change...
I’ve found that engaging people about their belief in Jesus is frequently something that needs to be done in a manner which is significantly more confrontational than what is considered polite conversation. Being told that how you live is flawed at a fundamental level is very difficult to deal with, and people will be inclined to not deal with it. … So if you want to convince someone to love Jesus, bug them about it.
Do you have any reason to believe that people will react to the first better than to the second?
While there are many people who are annoyed by Christian Evangelicals, I feel that it is difficult to argue against their effectiveness. They exist because they are willing to talk to people again and again about their beliefs until those people convert.
Do you have any reason to believe that Christian Evangelicals are ineffective at persuading people? Keep in mind that a 5% conversion rate is doing a pretty damn good job when it comes to changing people’s minds.
The margin of sampling error is +- 3% while the difference the 1980 percentage and the 2005 percentage is 5%. I do think that a trend which has a p value less than .05 is statistically significant.
My link shows the percentage of people who self-identify as Evangelicals. The data starts in 1991 and ends in 2005. The first values (1991-1993) are 41%, 42%, 46%, 44%, 43%, and the last values (2004-2005) are 42%, 39%, 42%, 47%, 40%.
I see no trend.
Your link shows the percentage of people who answer three proxy questions. The data starts in 1976 and ends in 2005. Over that time period one question goes up (47% to 52%), one goes down (38% to 32%) and the third goes up as well (35% to 48%). Do note that the survey says “When looking at the percentage of Americans who say yes to all three of these questions, slightly more than one in five (22%) American adults could be considered evangelical” and that’s about *half* of the number of people who self-identify as such.
Given all this, I see no evidence that the mind share of the Evangelicals in the US is increasing.
The proxy I am specifically looking at for evangelical Christianity is people who claim to have spread the “good news” about Jesus to someone. In other words, asking people whether they themselves have evangelized (the data on this is the fairly clear 47% to 52% upward trend). To me, it makes a lot of sense to call someone an Evangelical Christian if they have in fact evangelized for Christianity. And if we disagree on that definition, then there is really nothing more I can say.
To me, it makes a lot of sense to call someone an Evangelical Christian if they have in fact evangelized for Christianity.
The Pope would be surprised to hear that, I think.
All Christians of all denominations are supposed to spread the Good Word. Christianity is an actively proselytizing religion and has always been one. The Roman Catholic Church, in particular, has been quite active on that front. As have been Mormons, Adventists, Jehova’s Witnesses, etc. etc.
Then let me respecify what I should have stated originally, Christians who evangelize for Christianity are effective at persuading others to join the cause. I am concerned with how bugging people about a cause (aka evangelizing for it) will effect the number of people in that cause. The numbers shown suggest that if we consider evangelizing Christians to be a group, then they are growing as support of my hypothesis.
Oh, I’m well aware that this technique could be used to spread irrational and harmful memes. But if you’re trying to persuade someone to rationality using techniques of argument which presume rationality, it’s unlikely that you’ll succeed. So you may have to get your rationalist hands dirty.
Your call on what’s the better outcome: successfully convincing someone to be more rational (but having their agency violated through irrational persuasion) or leaving that person in the dark. It’s a nontrivial moral dilemma which should only be considered once rational persuasion has failed.
Apologies, I should have been clearer in using donations to the AMF as an analogy to persuading people to be more rational and not a direct way to persuade people to be more rational. I don’t claim that these people are more rational simply because they donate to the AMF.
If we are really trying to persuade people, however, guilt tripping should be considered as an option. Logical arguments will only change the behavior of a very small segment of society while even self-professed rationalists can be persuaded with good emotional appeals.
Apologies, I should have been clearer in using donations to the AMF as an analogy to persuading people to be more rational and not a direct way to persuade people to be more rational.
No, you were using it as anecdotal evidence that your method works.
I don’t claim that these people are more rational simply because they donate to the AMF.
The following advice is anecdotal and is a very clear example of “other optimizing”. So don’t take it with a grain of salt, take it with at least a table spoon.
I’ve found that engaging people about their rationality habits is frequently something that needs to be done in a manner which is significantly more confrontational than what is considered polite conversation. Being told that how you think is flawed at a fundamental level is very difficult to deal with, and people will be inclined to not deal with it. So you need to talk to people about the real world consequences of their biases and very specifically describe how acting in a less biased manner will improve their life and the lives of those around them.
Anecdotally I’ve found this to be true in convincing people to donate money to the AMF. My friends will be happy to agree that they should do so, but unless prodded repeatedly and pointedly they will not actually take the next step of donating. I accept that my friends are not a good sample to generalize from (my social circle tends to include those who are already slightly more rational than the average bear to begin with). So if you want to convince someone to be more rational, bug them about it. Once a week for two months. Specificity is key here, talk about real life examples where their biases are causing problems. The more concrete the better since it allows them to have a clear picture of what improvement will look like.
Let me make just a small change...
I’ve found that engaging people about their belief in Jesus is frequently something that needs to be done in a manner which is significantly more confrontational than what is considered polite conversation. Being told that how you live is flawed at a fundamental level is very difficult to deal with, and people will be inclined to not deal with it. … So if you want to convince someone to love Jesus, bug them about it.
Do you have any reason to believe that people will react to the first better than to the second?
While there are many people who are annoyed by Christian Evangelicals, I feel that it is difficult to argue against their effectiveness. They exist because they are willing to talk to people again and again about their beliefs until those people convert.
Do you have any reason to believe that Christian Evangelicals are ineffective at persuading people? Keep in mind that a 5% conversion rate is doing a pretty damn good job when it comes to changing people’s minds.
Yes. Their mind share in the US is not increasing.
False, according to both the source you cited and http://www.gallup.com/poll/16519/us-evangelicals-how-many-walk-walk.aspx
False, really? So looking at the data in these two links you think you see a statistically significant trend?
Don’t forget that your (second) link is concerned with proxies for being an Evangelical...
The margin of sampling error is +- 3% while the difference the 1980 percentage and the 2005 percentage is 5%. I do think that a trend which has a p value less than .05 is statistically significant.
I am not sure which data you are looking at.
My link shows the percentage of people who self-identify as Evangelicals. The data starts in 1991 and ends in 2005. The first values (1991-1993) are 41%, 42%, 46%, 44%, 43%, and the last values (2004-2005) are 42%, 39%, 42%, 47%, 40%.
I see no trend.
Your link shows the percentage of people who answer three proxy questions. The data starts in 1976 and ends in 2005. Over that time period one question goes up (47% to 52%), one goes down (38% to 32%) and the third goes up as well (35% to 48%). Do note that the survey says “When looking at the percentage of Americans who say yes to all three of these questions, slightly more than one in five (22%) American adults could be considered evangelical” and that’s about *half* of the number of people who self-identify as such.
Given all this, I see no evidence that the mind share of the Evangelicals in the US is increasing.
The proxy I am specifically looking at for evangelical Christianity is people who claim to have spread the “good news” about Jesus to someone. In other words, asking people whether they themselves have evangelized (the data on this is the fairly clear 47% to 52% upward trend). To me, it makes a lot of sense to call someone an Evangelical Christian if they have in fact evangelized for Christianity. And if we disagree on that definition, then there is really nothing more I can say.
The Pope would be surprised to hear that, I think.
All Christians of all denominations are supposed to spread the Good Word. Christianity is an actively proselytizing religion and has always been one. The Roman Catholic Church, in particular, has been quite active on that front. As have been Mormons, Adventists, Jehova’s Witnesses, etc. etc.
Then let me respecify what I should have stated originally, Christians who evangelize for Christianity are effective at persuading others to join the cause. I am concerned with how bugging people about a cause (aka evangelizing for it) will effect the number of people in that cause. The numbers shown suggest that if we consider evangelizing Christians to be a group, then they are growing as support of my hypothesis.
If it works regardless of what it is you’re telling people to do, that makes it dark arts.
Oh, I’m well aware that this technique could be used to spread irrational and harmful memes. But if you’re trying to persuade someone to rationality using techniques of argument which presume rationality, it’s unlikely that you’ll succeed. So you may have to get your rationalist hands dirty.
Your call on what’s the better outcome: successfully convincing someone to be more rational (but having their agency violated through irrational persuasion) or leaving that person in the dark. It’s a nontrivial moral dilemma which should only be considered once rational persuasion has failed.
It’s not clear to me that donating to AMF is a reliable sign of their increased rationality. How do you know you’re not simply guilt tripping them?
Apologies, I should have been clearer in using donations to the AMF as an analogy to persuading people to be more rational and not a direct way to persuade people to be more rational. I don’t claim that these people are more rational simply because they donate to the AMF.
If we are really trying to persuade people, however, guilt tripping should be considered as an option. Logical arguments will only change the behavior of a very small segment of society while even self-professed rationalists can be persuaded with good emotional appeals.
No, you were using it as anecdotal evidence that your method works.
Well, you’re argument does rely on that premise.