FWIW this is around the amount of progress I was expecting in 2016. For better or worse I updated very hard toward very short timelines once alphago was released in 2015. Amusingly at the time I figured we had 10-20 years until strong AGI, which gives an average of 2030. I prefer to say strong AGI since as far as I’m concerned publicly available AGI was released in late 2022.
FWIW this is around the amount of progress I was expecting in 2016. For better or worse I updated very hard toward very short timelines once alphago was released in 2015. Amusingly at the time I figured we had 10-20 years until strong AGI, which gives an average of 2030. I prefer to say strong AGI since as far as I’m concerned publicly available AGI was released in late 2022.