I’m curious what fraction-of-2023-tasks-automatable and maybe fraction-of-world-economy-automated you think will occur at e.g. overpower time, and the median year for that. (I sometimes notice people assuming 99%-automatability occurs before all the humans are dead, without realizing they’re assuming anything.)
(a) 99% remotable 2023 tasks automateable (the thing we forecast in the OP) (b) 99% 2023 tasks automatable (c) 99% 2023 tasks automated (d) Overpower ability
My best guess at the ordering will be a->d->b->c.
Rationale: Overpower ability probably requires something like a fully functioning general purpose agent capable of doing hardcore novel R&D. So, (a). However it probably doesn’t require sophisticated robots, of the sort you’d need to actually automate all 2023 tasks. It certainly doesn’t require actually having replaced all human jobs in the actual economy, though for strategic reasons a coalition of powerful misaligned AGIs would plausibly wait to kill the humans until they had actually rendered the humans unnecessary.
My best guess is that a, d, and b will all happen in the same year, possibly within the same month. c will probably take longer for reasons sketched above.
Thanks!
I’m curious what fraction-of-2023-tasks-automatable and maybe fraction-of-world-economy-automated you think will occur at e.g. overpower time, and the median year for that. (I sometimes notice people assuming 99%-automatability occurs before all the humans are dead, without realizing they’re assuming anything.)
Distinguishing:
(a) 99% remotable 2023 tasks automateable (the thing we forecast in the OP)
(b) 99% 2023 tasks automatable
(c) 99% 2023 tasks automated
(d) Overpower ability
My best guess at the ordering will be a->d->b->c.
Rationale: Overpower ability probably requires something like a fully functioning general purpose agent capable of doing hardcore novel R&D. So, (a). However it probably doesn’t require sophisticated robots, of the sort you’d need to actually automate all 2023 tasks. It certainly doesn’t require actually having replaced all human jobs in the actual economy, though for strategic reasons a coalition of powerful misaligned AGIs would plausibly wait to kill the humans until they had actually rendered the humans unnecessary.
My best guess is that a, d, and b will all happen in the same year, possibly within the same month. c will probably take longer for reasons sketched above.