What sort of odds ratio would you assign to the evidence presented by the prosecution given the knowledge that it’s filtered? If your other figures are not similar to mine, it would need to be more than two orders of magnitude higher than what I assign, or about 3,000 to 1.
My low weighting of the prosecution’s evidence hinges, not simply on the fact that it is filtered, but that it is not much stronger than the evidence that I would expect them to find against anyone else given a similar level of investigation. So it is not analogous to dismissal of the evidence that “coin flips between 641 and 1000 were heads” on the basis that while true, it is filtered and so can be discounted. It is more analogous to receiving the evidence “at least six of ten coin flips came up heads,” and deciding “If you had stronger evidence than that, you probably would have told me, and that is not much more evidence than I would expect to see from an average unbiased coin.”
The defense extensively pointed out the weakness of the evidence brought forward by the prosecution, they did not put similar resources to the prosecution in order to raise similar evidence against anyone else to show how easy it would be. If people sincerely want to produce reasons for believing something, they will tend to both find and overweight them. I would bet at 1:1 odds that had the prosecution investigated me with a similar level of prior suspicion, they would have found as much or more reason to suspect me, and I may be atypical, but I do not think I am 1 in 3,000 suspicious. Conditioned on the facts that Knox was already known to have odd mannerisms, and was a foreigner from the perspective of the police (one of the original pieces of evidence that the police used to narrow her down as a suspect, for instance, was that she texted “see you later” to her boss, whom she was not about to see,) I think you will need to provide some very strong arguments to convince me that you are not dramatically overweighting.
What sort of odds ratio would you assign to the evidence presented by the prosecution given the knowledge that it’s filtered?
I’m not sure what you mean by “odds ratio” and I don’t know exactly what evidence was presented by the prosecution, so it’s hard to say. My assessment of 90% is based on the evidence I am aware of.
but that it is not much stronger than the evidence that I would expect them to find against anyone else given a similar level of investigation
I disagree. I shared some of my arguments about my interpretation of the evidence in the last couple threads.
What sort of odds ratio would you assign to the evidence presented by the prosecution given the knowledge that it’s filtered? If your other figures are not similar to mine, it would need to be more than two orders of magnitude higher than what I assign, or about 3,000 to 1.
My low weighting of the prosecution’s evidence hinges, not simply on the fact that it is filtered, but that it is not much stronger than the evidence that I would expect them to find against anyone else given a similar level of investigation. So it is not analogous to dismissal of the evidence that “coin flips between 641 and 1000 were heads” on the basis that while true, it is filtered and so can be discounted. It is more analogous to receiving the evidence “at least six of ten coin flips came up heads,” and deciding “If you had stronger evidence than that, you probably would have told me, and that is not much more evidence than I would expect to see from an average unbiased coin.”
The defense extensively pointed out the weakness of the evidence brought forward by the prosecution, they did not put similar resources to the prosecution in order to raise similar evidence against anyone else to show how easy it would be. If people sincerely want to produce reasons for believing something, they will tend to both find and overweight them. I would bet at 1:1 odds that had the prosecution investigated me with a similar level of prior suspicion, they would have found as much or more reason to suspect me, and I may be atypical, but I do not think I am 1 in 3,000 suspicious. Conditioned on the facts that Knox was already known to have odd mannerisms, and was a foreigner from the perspective of the police (one of the original pieces of evidence that the police used to narrow her down as a suspect, for instance, was that she texted “see you later” to her boss, whom she was not about to see,) I think you will need to provide some very strong arguments to convince me that you are not dramatically overweighting.
I’m not sure what you mean by “odds ratio” and I don’t know exactly what evidence was presented by the prosecution, so it’s hard to say. My assessment of 90% is based on the evidence I am aware of.
I disagree. I shared some of my arguments about my interpretation of the evidence in the last couple threads.