Nonetheless, the absence of any scientific evidence at all pointing towards guilt (when there was lots of scientific evidence taken) would still be significant evidence of absence of guilt, correct?
It’s not a proof but it is evidence. He’s challenging the 90%, which is perfectly fair under Bayesian reasoning. Because that evidence of absence of guilt is very significant, it would should shift your probabilities far more downward.
I did not mean to say, “there is no evidence of absence of guilt”, or even “there is not overwhelming evidence of absence of guilt”—not really having looked directly at evidence myself, it would be silly for me to weigh in either way. I was just objecting to the hyperbole: science’s ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) the premise that Newtonian gravity approximately holds for speeds and masses typically involved in human activity on the surface of the earth seems much, much greater than sciences ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) anything particular feature of a past event.
Nonetheless, the absence of any scientific evidence at all pointing towards guilt (when there was lots of scientific evidence taken) would still be significant evidence of absence of guilt, correct?
It’s not a proof but it is evidence. He’s challenging the 90%, which is perfectly fair under Bayesian reasoning. Because that evidence of absence of guilt is very significant, it would should shift your probabilities far more downward.
I did not mean to say, “there is no evidence of absence of guilt”, or even “there is not overwhelming evidence of absence of guilt”—not really having looked directly at evidence myself, it would be silly for me to weigh in either way. I was just objecting to the hyperbole: science’s ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) the premise that Newtonian gravity approximately holds for speeds and masses typically involved in human activity on the surface of the earth seems much, much greater than sciences ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) anything particular feature of a past event.