Doesn’t look like there’s any sort of function you can use, but there are almost no points in the top right corner of your graph. Almost nobody with high karma on LW assigned a substantial probability that Knox was guilty.
Neat! It appears the shared version is writable. How can I make a copy of a Google doc, so I can mess around with it myself?
I entered this into OpenOffice, and it also gave me a slope of -.02, an intercept of .4, and an R-squared of .02.
Weird that the R-squared is so low, since 8 people with log(karma) < .7 gave p > .5, and no people with log(karma) > .7 did.
Also, Eliezer gave p=.15, and that doesn’t appear on the graph.
There is a copy option under the file tab. You’re welcome to add to mine though.
Weird that the R-squared is so low, since 8 people with log(karma) < .7 gave p > .5, and no people with log(karma) > .7 did.
For users with Ln(karma) > 7 no answer was > 0.5. But within that range people were about as attracted to 0.5 as they were to 0.01. For further investigation I’d want like to see residuals and the log10 of the prediction.
I want to see the regression of LW karma (or the log of LW karma) on probability-Amanda-is-guilty!
You ought to leave Eliezer out of the equation, or assign him a Karma value equal to Yvain’s, or else he’ll dominate the regression.
Feel free to try and make something fit
Doesn’t look like there’s any sort of function you can use, but there are almost no points in the top right corner of your graph. Almost nobody with high karma on LW assigned a substantial probability that Knox was guilty.
Neat! It appears the shared version is writable. How can I make a copy of a Google doc, so I can mess around with it myself? I entered this into OpenOffice, and it also gave me a slope of -.02, an intercept of .4, and an R-squared of .02. Weird that the R-squared is so low, since 8 people with log(karma) < .7 gave p > .5, and no people with log(karma) > .7 did.
Also, Eliezer gave p=.15, and that doesn’t appear on the graph.
No he didn’t.
Left Eliezer off since we don’t have a firm probability for him and his karma is a huge outlier.
There is a copy option under the file tab. You’re welcome to add to mine though.
For users with Ln(karma) > 7 no answer was > 0.5. But within that range people were about as attracted to 0.5 as they were to 0.01. For further investigation I’d want like to see residuals and the log10 of the prediction.
Do you want it enough to do it yourself?