Duplicate this to the open thread to increase visibility
I don’t know your exact implementation for forming the ranked list, but I worry that if you (for example) simply sort from low likelihood to high likelihood, it encourages people to only submit very low probability predictions.
Entering an extremely unlikely prediction as a strategy to maximize EV only makes sense if there’s a huge number of entrants, which seems improbable unless this contest goes viral. The inclusion of an “interesting” factor in the ranking criteria should deter spamming with low-quality entries.
suggestions:
Duplicate this to the open thread to increase visibility
I don’t know your exact implementation for forming the ranked list, but I worry that if you (for example) simply sort from low likelihood to high likelihood, it encourages people to only submit very low probability predictions.
Will do.
Entering an extremely unlikely prediction as a strategy to maximize EV only makes sense if there’s a huge number of entrants, which seems improbable unless this contest goes viral. The inclusion of an “interesting” factor in the ranking criteria should deter spamming with low-quality entries.