Regarding the estimate that Delta is 40% more infectious than Alpha: I’ve seen 50-60% mentioned a lot in the last couple of days from UK expert sources. If true, this would probably make a big difference to your calculations.
Ah, I used 40% first, then used 60% in the later calculations as I gathered more data, and forgot to go back and update. But I used 60% (57% or so actually, but close enough) in my base calculation.
Regarding the estimate that Delta is 40% more infectious than Alpha: I’ve seen 50-60% mentioned a lot in the last couple of days from UK expert sources. If true, this would probably make a big difference to your calculations.
Ah, I used 40% first, then used 60% in the later calculations as I gathered more data, and forgot to go back and update. But I used 60% (57% or so actually, but close enough) in my base calculation.
I’ve edited to reflect this.