Thanks for the clarification. I don’t see how your numbers contradict mine. But if I understand correctly: you’re betting on my item 1, and you don’t view it as a problem if the ratio of total market cap of stocks to money supply is >1, given that the real estate market already is like that. That seems reasonable, and I’m less skeptical now.
BTW how have you decided which fraction of your wealth to invest into this? Kelly doesn’t apply because this is a single-shot scenario, so how did you go about this?
We are clearly looking at things differently. That’s fine. But if two people see things differently I don’t think it’s wise to map what they are saying into your ontology.
Thanks for the clarification. I don’t see how your numbers contradict mine. But if I understand correctly: you’re betting on my item 1, and you don’t view it as a problem if the ratio of total market cap of stocks to money supply is >1, given that the real estate market already is like that. That seems reasonable, and I’m less skeptical now.
BTW how have you decided which fraction of your wealth to invest into this? Kelly doesn’t apply because this is a single-shot scenario, so how did you go about this?
Kelly always applies
We are clearly looking at things differently. That’s fine. But if two people see things differently I don’t think it’s wise to map what they are saying into your ontology.