I agree about what is more evidence in my view, but that could be consistent with current AIs and the pace of their advancement being more compelling to the average reader, particularly people who strongly prefer empirical evidence to conceptual arguments.
Not sure whether Collier was referring to it being more compelling in her view, readers’, or both.
edit: also of course current AIs and the pace of advancement are very relevant evidence for whether superhuman AGIs will arrive soon. And I think often people (imo wrongly in this case, but still) round off “won’t happen for 10-20+ years” to “we don’t need to worry about it now.”
I agree about what is more evidence in my view, but that could be consistent with current AIs and the pace of their advancement being more compelling to the average reader, particularly people who strongly prefer empirical evidence to conceptual arguments.
Not sure whether Collier was referring to it being more compelling in her view, readers’, or both.
edit: also of course current AIs and the pace of advancement are very relevant evidence for whether superhuman AGIs will arrive soon. And I think often people (imo wrongly in this case, but still) round off “won’t happen for 10-20+ years” to “we don’t need to worry about it now.”