The more robotic cars on the road we have, the less accident there will be. Insurance companies will notice this fast. Once they do, government will as well, and the production of purely manual cars may be forbidden less than 10 years after successful commercialization, so around 2030. (Most police offices in France have pictures of car crashes hanging on their walls, so I expect the government will listen when it’s told that robots save lives.)
If all goes well, no one will ever need to drive again in 20 years (at least in rich countries). Given the time it takes to grow up, I think less than half of the children born today will get a manual driving licence.
The more robotic cars on the road we have, the less accident there will be. Insurance companies will notice this fast. Once they do, government will as well, and the production of purely manual cars may be forbidden less than 10 years after successful commercialization, so around 2030. (Most police offices in France have pictures of car crashes hanging on their walls, so I expect the government will listen when it’s told that robots save lives.)
If all goes well, no one will ever need to drive again in 20 years (at least in rich countries). Given the time it takes to grow up, I think less than half of the children born today will get a manual driving licence.